Buster, A Nut

On January 10, 2006, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced that only one player -- Bruce Sutter -- had made the Hall of Fame. ESPN was kind enough to share with us how their ten BBWAA members voted. Of specific note is Buster Olney's decision to vote for Jack Morris but omit Bert Blyleven.

On that same day, Olney, on his ESPN.com weblog, explained why he omitted the Angry Dutchman:

	Bert Blyleven was the toughest guy to leave off my ballot, and while I don't know him, it feels like I do, because I see him and listen to him on television three or four times a week. He's insightful, he's direct, he's smart, he's entertaining. I think he's probably going to be frustrated by today's results, and you can't help but feel for him. But just as I don't believe that a player's personality should be a factor in preventing him from getting votes, I don't think the fact that you like someone should be a reason to vote for him. Blyleven is a borderline candidate, and while others have made a case for him, here is something that gnaws at me, as a voter: In his entire career, he was not a consistent league leader; he never led his league in ERA or in victories. He did lead the American League in strikeouts in 1985, but he wasn't a regular top-three Cy Young Award candidate. In fact, he was named on Cy Young ballots just four times in his career. And despite the fact that he played in 21 seasons, he was named to an All-Star team only twice -- and remember, that's an honor doled out by the managers, not writers or fans.

Olney did not mention why he voted for Morris. However, one can safely assume that Olney applied the same analysis to Morris's career that he did to Blyleven's -- or, in the very least, he should have.

I am not trying to justify nor discredit Olney's concerns. I am applying them for sake of consistency. For reasons soon to be made obvious, in the analysis below, I am taking the concerns out of order. But I'll address them one by one.

Cy Young Voting

Blyleven "wasn't a regular top-three Cy Young Award candidate." Indeed, he was top three twice. Morris? Top three twice. To Morris's credit, he did make the Cy ballot seven times to Blyleven's four. Give a slight edge to Morris.

Being a Consistent League Leader

Olney notes that Blyleven never lead his league in ERA or wins. Morris also never lead the league in ERA -- in fact, he only cracked the top 5 twice. As for wins, Morris lead the league twice; once, in strike-shortened 1981; and again, in 1992. These can both be discounted:

• 1981 was a strike season, and Morris was in a four-way tie.
• In 1992, Morris tied Kevin Brown for the wins title. Further, Morris had an absurdly high 4.04 ERA.

Olney also notes that Blyleven only lead the league in strikeouts once. This is true. However, Morris also only lead the league in strikeouts once.

But let's apply Olney's "top-three" criteria to league leadership.

Wins: Blyleven only cracked the top three once. Morris cracked it four times. Of the four, two are recounted above. Another time -- in 1984 -- he was tied for second . . . with Blyleven.

Strikeouts: Morris made the top three a total of 3 times, and never finished fourth. Blyleven made the top three 6 times, and finished fourth an additional six times.

ERA: Three for Blyleven. None for Morris.

The full analysis requires an edge for Blyleven.

All-Star Appearances

On its face, this greatly favors Blyleven. After all, Bert had only 2 All-Star games to his credit, while Morris has five.

Olney notes that this is an award not voted on. Selections -- at least insofar as pitchers are concerned -- are made by the manager of the All-Star team. That's fair, but what he fails to not is that these decisions are typically made on the player's first two to three months of the season, and not on full season results.

Morris made the All-Star Game in 1981, 1984, 1985, 1987, and 1991. Blyleven did not play in '91, but did pitch in the other four years. Let's compare Bert's stats to those years to Jack's.

1981

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	Cy Young Voting
Morris	14	97	3.05	Third
Blyleven	11	107	2.88	Not on Ballot

1984

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	Cy Young Voting
Morris	14	97	3.05	Third
Blyleven	11	107	2.88	Not on Ballot

1985

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	Cy Young Voting
Morris	14	97	3.05	Third
Blyleven	11	107	2.88	Not on Ballot

1987

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	Cy Young Voting
Morris	14	97	3.05	Third
Blyleven	11	107	2.88	Not on Ballot