Article:NCAA Football Projections Week 2: Texas Tech @ Nevada

= Week 2 NCAA Projections =

Scores and standings for every team By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com August 12th, 2008

''We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).'' Game of the Week: #16 Texas Tech 37 @ Nevada 32 After several marquee matchups in the first week of the season, Week 2 does not have a single game that stands out above the rest. This one pits a high-powered Texas Tech squad looking to contend for the Big 12 crown. The team's defense will get an early-season, non-conference, road test against another potential offensive juggernaut in Nevada. According to the sim, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and the Red Raiders 75.4% of the time by an average score of 37-32. Personally, I may take the Over on that projection (and whatever Vegas says). Either way, this will be a fun game to watch that may be closer than most would think.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here. To hide the details, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 2.

Week 2 Scores for Every FBS Game



Matchup

| Home Win% |

Avg Score

|
 * Citadel @ Clemson | 95 |

3-45

|

Furman @ Virginia Tech

| 95 | 3-43 |
 * Richmond @ Virginia | 95 | 4-36 |
 * Western Carolina @ Florida State | 95 | 4-38 |
 * William & Mary @ NC St. | 95 | 5-30 |
 * Tennessee Tech @ Louisville | 95 | 6-44 |
 * Eastern Illinois @ Illinois | 95 | 3-44 |
 * Marshall @ Wisconsin | 95 | 10-40 |
 * Murray State @ Indiana | 95 | 4-45 |
 * Northern Colorado @ Purdue | 95 | 4-44 |
 * Ohio @ Ohio State | 95 | 6-41 |
 * Eastern Washington @ Colorado | 95 | 5-40 |
 * Louisiana Tech @ Kansas | 95 | 13-36 |
 * Montana State @ Kansas State | 95 | 4-47 |
 * Northwestern State @ Baylor | 95 | 6-39 |
 * Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri | 95 | 4-55 |
 * Texas State @ SMU | 95 | 7-35 |
 * San Diego State @ Notre Dame | 95 | 8-39 |
 * Sacramento State @ Colorado St. | 95 | 5-35 |
 * Stephen F. Austin @ TCU | 95 | 4-40 |
 * Utah State @ Oregon | 95 | 9-35 |
 * C. Michigan @ Georgia | 95 | 13-39 |
 * Norfolk State @ Kentucky | 95 | 4-37 |
 * Southeastern Louisiana @ Mississippi State | 95 | 4-36 |
 * Troy @ LSU | 95 | 5-44 |
 * Tulane @ Alabama | 95 | 7-37 |
 * Idaho State @ Idaho | 95 | 7-37 |
 * Nicholls State @ New Mexico State | 95 | 6-37 |
 * Weber State @ Hawaii | 95 | 5-38 |
 * Fla. Int. @ Iowa | 95 | 7-36 |
 * Cincinnati @ Oklahoma | 95 | 20-35 |
 * San Jose State @ Nebraska | 95 | 9-34 |
 * Texas Southern @ Arkansas St. | 95 | 6-37 |
 * E. Michigan @ Michigan State | 95 | 10-36 |
 * Stanford @ Arizona St. | 95 | 10-38 |
 * New Hampshire @ Army | 93.4 | 6-25 |
 * UNLV @ Utah | 93.4 | 13-39 |
 * S. Miss @ Auburn | 91.8 | 8-31 |
 * UAB @ Florida Atlantic | 91.8 | 13-35 |
 * Mississippi @ WF | 90.2 | 12-31 |
 * Miami (FL) @ Florida | 90.2 | 12-38 |
 * Buffalo @ Pittsburgh | 88.5 | 14-37 |
 * Northern Illinois @ W. Michigan | 83.6 | 18-32 |
 * Toledo @ Arizona | 78.7 | 21-38 |
 * Oregon State @ Penn State | 77 | 15-27 |
 * Miami (OH) @ Michigan | 73.8 | 13-30 |
 * GA Tech @ Boston College | 67.2 | 17-26 |
 * Houston @ Oklahoma State | 63.9 | 31-38 |
 * Texas A&M @ New Mexico | 57.4 | 23-31 |
 * Akron @ Syracuse | 55.7 | 15-24 |
 * Navy @ Ball State | 50.8 | 30-36 |
 * Air Force @ Wyoming | 49.2 | 21-21 |
 * Northwestern @ Duke | 45.9 | 22-23 |
 * Minn. @ Bowling Green | 39.3 | 33-33 |
 * Rice @ Memphis | 37.7 | 28-24 |
 * Kent St. @ Iowa State | 32.8 | 22-18 |
 * Arkansas @ LA-Monroe | 24.6 | 31-20 |
 * Texas Tech @ Nevada | 24.6 | 37-32 |
 * Connecticut @ Temple | 21.3 | 26-18 |
 * Brigham Young @ Washington | 21.3 | 36-28 |
 * South Florida @ UCF | 19.7 | 31-21 |
 * California @ Washington St. | 14.8 | 32-21 |
 * W. Virginia @ East Carolina | 9.8 | 38-21 |
 * Maryland @ Mid Tenn | 9.8 | 31-17 |
 * S. Carolina @ Vanderbilt | 8.2 | 28-13 |
 * Tulsa @ North Texas | 6.6 | 39-23 |
 * Texas @ UTEP | 1.6 | 33-17 |
 * Western Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 30-8 |

Updated FBS Standings through Week 2


 * Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |
 * Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | WF | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Duke | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big East | Connecticut | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big East | Louisville | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big East | Pittsburgh | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big East | South Florida | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big East | W. Virginia | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big East | Cincinnati | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big East | Syracuse | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big East | Rutgers | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
 * Big Ten | Indiana | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Iowa | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Ohio State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Penn State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Wisconsin | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Purdue | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Illinois | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Ten | Minn. | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Ten | Northwestern | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Colorado | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Missouri | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Nebraska | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Baylor | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | Tulsa | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Conference USA | Houston | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | Marshall | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | Memphis | 0 - 2 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | Rice | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | S. Miss | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | SMU | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | UCF | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | UTEP | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | East Carolina | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | Tulane | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | UAB | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Army | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Navy | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Ball State | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Bowling Green | 0 - 2 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Buffalo | 0 - 2 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | C. Michigan | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | E. Michigan | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Kent St. | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Temple | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | W. Michigan | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mid-American | Akron | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Mid-American | Ohio | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Mid-American | Toledo | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Brigham Young | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Mountain West | TCU | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Mountain West | Air Force | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Colorado St. | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | New Mexico | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | UNLV | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Utah | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Wyoming | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Pacific-10 | USC | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Pacific-10 | California | 2 - 0 | 1 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Stanford | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Pacific-10 | UCLA | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Southeastern | Arkansas | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Auburn | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Florida | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Georgia | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | LSU | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | S. Carolina | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Tennessee | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Alabama | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Kentucky | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | North Texas | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | Troy | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Boise State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Western Athletic | Fresno State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
 * Western Athletic | Hawaii | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | Idaho | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | Nevada | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | San Jose State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |

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