Article:Week 9 College Football Projections: Scores From Every Game

= Week 9 NCAA Projections =

Scores and standings for every team By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com August 19th, 2008 ''We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here. To hide the details, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 9.

Week 9 Scores for Every FBS Game


 * Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |
 * Penn State @ Ohio State | 95 | 7-36 |
 * UNLV @ Brigham Young | 95 | 17-34 |
 * NC St. @ Maryland | 95 | 12-35 |
 * Kentucky @ Florida | 93.4 | 11-35 |
 * Mid Tenn @ Mississippi State | 91.8 | 7-29 |
 * Colorado @ Missouri | 90.2 | 22-33 |
 * E. Michigan @ Ball State | 88.5 | 19-40 |
 * Boston College @ North Carolina | 83.6 | 17-30 |
 * Northwestern @ Indiana | 83.6 | 18-34 |
 * Auburn @ W. Virginia | 82 | 14-31 |
 * Minn. @ Purdue | 82 | 26-35 |
 * Oklahoma State @ Texas | 75.4 | 30-34 |
 * Kent St. @ Miami (OH) | 73.8 | 13-27 |
 * Baylor @ Nebraska | 70.5 | 21-34 |
 * SMU @ Navy | 70.5 | 27-39 |
 * Wyoming @ TCU | 68.9 | 10-21 |
 * Oregon @ Arizona St. | 63.9 | 22-31 |
 * Rutgers @ Pittsburgh | 62.3 | 21-29 |
 * Texas Tech @ Kansas | 59 | 32-32 |
 * UCLA @ California | 57.4 | 24-30 |
 * Mississippi @ Arkansas | 57.4 | 22-30 |
 * Ohio @ Temple | 55.7 | 16-26 |
 * Illinois @ Wisconsin | 54.1 | 22-27 |
 * Virginia @ GA Tech | 50.8 | 13-23 |
 * Michigan State @ Michigan | 50.8 | 20-30 |
 * New Mexico State @ Idaho | 49.2 | 26-29 |
 * New Mexico @ Air Force | 47.5 | 22-21 |
 * South Florida @ Louisville | 45.9 | 37-35 |
 * Notre Dame @ Washington | 42.6 | 29-26 |
 * Troy @ North Texas | 42.6 | 20-19 |
 * UCF @ Tulsa | 39.3 | 31-27 |
 * Virginia Tech @ Florida State | 32.8 | 23-19 |
 * Cincinnati @ Connecticut | 32.8 | 28-23 |
 * Alabama @ Tennessee | 32.8 | 29-24 |
 * S. Miss @ Memphis | 31.1 | 27-21 |
 * Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois | 31.1 | 28-23 |
 * Duke @ Vanderbilt | 31.1 | 22-18 |
 * Georgia @ LSU | 29.5 | 27-20 |
 * Louisiana Tech @ Army | 27.9 | 20-14 |
 * Nevada @ Hawaii | 27.9 | 35-29 |
 * Florida Atlantic @ LA-Monroe | 26.2 | 32-26 |
 * Rice @ Tulane | 24.6 | 29-22 |
 * Colorado St. @ San Diego State | 19.7 | 28-17 |
 * C. Michigan @ Toledo | 14.8 | 38-27 |
 * Oklahoma @ Kansas State | 6.6 | 36-28 |
 * Texas A&M @ Iowa State | 6.6 | 32-19 |
 * USC @ Arizona | 5 | 35-15 |
 * Boise State @ San Jose State | 5 | 34-11 |
 * WF @ Miami (FL) | 5 | 26-11 |
 * Fresno State @ Utah State | 5 | 36-13 |

Updated FBS Standings through Week 9


 * Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | WF | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 5 - 3 | 6 - 2 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 7 - 1 | 5 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Duke | 2 - 5 | 4 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 1 - 7 | 1 - 7 |
 * Big East | W. Virginia | 7 - 0 | 7 - 0 |
 * Big East | South Florida | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big East | Cincinnati | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big East | Louisville | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big East | Pittsburgh | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big East | Connecticut | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big East | Rutgers | 2 - 6 | 4 - 4 |
 * Big East | Syracuse | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Big Ten | Ohio State | 9 - 0 | 9 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Illinois | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Indiana | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Wisconsin | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Iowa | 4 - 4 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Purdue | 7 - 1 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan State | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |
 * Big Ten | Penn State | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |
 * Big Ten | Northwestern | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
 * Big Ten | Minn. | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 8 - 0 | 8 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Missouri | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas State | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Twelve | Nebraska | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Big Twelve | Baylor | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Big Twelve | Colorado | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Conference USA | Tulsa | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | Houston | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | UCF | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | East Carolina | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Conference USA | Rice | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | S. Miss | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | Memphis | 2 - 7 | 4 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | Marshall | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | SMU | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |
 * Conference USA | Tulane | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | UTEP | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | UAB | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Navy | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Army | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mid-American | Ball State | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
 * Mid-American | C. Michigan | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | W. Michigan | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | Bowling Green | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Kent St. | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Ohio | 2 - 6 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Temple | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Buffalo | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Mid-American | E. Michigan | 2 - 7 | 3 - 6 |
 * Mid-American | Akron | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mid-American | Toledo | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mountain West | Brigham Young | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Utah | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | TCU | 7 - 2 | 6 - 3 |
 * Mountain West | Air Force | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Mountain West | New Mexico | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |
 * Mountain West | Wyoming | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mountain West | Colorado St. | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mountain West | UNLV | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Pacific-10 | USC | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | California | 6 - 1 | 4 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | UCLA | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Pacific-10 | Stanford | 1 - 7 | 1 - 7 |
 * Southeastern | Georgia | 8 - 0 | 8 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | LSU | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Florida | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Alabama | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Southeastern | Auburn | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Kentucky | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi State | 4 - 4 | 5 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | S. Carolina | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Southeastern | Tennessee | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
 * Southeastern | Arkansas | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 8 | 1 - 7 |
 * Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Sun Belt | Troy | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Sun Belt | North Texas | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 7 | 1 - 6 |
 * Western Athletic | Boise State | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | Nevada | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Fresno State | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Hawaii | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |
 * Western Athletic | Idaho | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |
 * Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Western Athletic | San Jose State | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 8 | 1 - 7 |

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 Game of the Week: #2 Georgia 27 (8-0) @ #4 LSU 20 (7-1) Week 9 will be a huge week for college football. In the simulations, just about every game is close, so several games could easily go either way. Many games could warrant being chosen for the Game of the Week - in other weeks. Georgia vs. LSU though is the SEC's Super Bowl in 2008. The winner of this game (especially if it wins the expected rematch in the SEC Championship) will likely face the winner of the Ohio State/USC game (aka OSU) in the BCS National Championship. And not to completely give that answer away with six week-by-week previews remaining, but Georgia makes it out of this slugfest with its title hopes alive, winning 70.5% of the time and by an average score of 27-20. The Bulldogs reward? They play #8 Florida next week.