Article:Week 8 College Football Projections: Scores From Every Game

= Week 8 NCAA Projections =

Scores and standings for every team   By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com   August 18th, 2008 ''We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here. To hide the details, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 8.


 * Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |
 * San Diego State @ New Mexico | 95 | 8-33 |
 * Vanderbilt @ Georgia | 95 | 6-41 |
 * Syracuse @ South Florida | 95 | 16-33 |
 * Stanford @ UCLA | 95 | 10-36 |
 * Utah State @ Nevada | 95 | 18-38 |
 * GA Tech @ Clemson | 95 | 13-36 |
 * Colorado St. @ Utah | 95 | 13-34 |
 * Mid Tenn @ Louisville | 88.5 | 22-34 |
 * Baylor @ Oklahoma State | 86.9 | 26-35 |
 * Kansas @ Oklahoma | 86.9 | 32-37 |
 * Army @ Buffalo | 86.9 | 10-31 |
 * Memphis @ East Carolina | 85.2 | 16-34 |
 * Mississippi @ Alabama | 83.6 | 14-34 |
 * Fla. Int. @ Troy | 83.6 | 10-26 |
 * San Jose State @ New Mexico State | 83.6 | 15-26 |
 * UTEP @ Tulsa | 82 | 23-39 |
 * Hawaii @ Boise State | 75.4 | 16-28 |
 * Mississippi State @ Tennessee | 73.8 | 16-31 |
 * Indiana @ Illinois | 70.5 | 21-34 |
 * W. Michigan @ C. Michigan | 70.5 | 21-34 |
 * North Texas @ LA-Monroe | 70.5 | 17-33 |
 * Toledo @ Northern Illinois | 63.9 | 23-31 |
 * Oregon State @ Washington | 60.7 | 21-29 |
 * Arkansas @ Kentucky | 57.4 | 16-23 |
 * S. Miss @ Rice | 52.5 | 24-30 |
 * California @ Arizona | 49.2 | 30-31 |
 * Connecticut @ Rutgers | 47.5 | 27-27 |
 * Missouri @ Texas | 47.5 | 40-37 |
 * Michigan @ Penn State | 44.3 | 24-24 |
 * Akron @ E. Michigan | 44.3 | 21-20 |
 * Arkansas St. @ LA-Laf | 44.3 | 29-25 |
 * Brigham Young @ TCU | 41 | 24-24 |
 * Miami (FL) @ Duke | 39.3 | 19-18 |
 * Idaho @ Louisiana Tech | 36.1 | 24-21 |
 * WF @ Maryland | 34.4 | 26-23 |
 * Kansas State @ Colorado | 31.1 | 33-29 |
 * Marshall @ UAB | 29.5 | 28-23 |
 * Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green | 29.5 | 23-20 |
 * Pittsburgh @ Navy | 27.9 | 29-23 |
 * North Carolina @ Virginia | 26.2 | 23-17 |
 * Houston @ SMU | 24.6 | 35-28 |
 * Purdue @ Northwestern | 21.3 | 32-22 |
 * Texas Tech @ Texas A&M | 18 | 34-26 |
 * Virginia Tech @ Boston College | 13.1 | 23-14 |
 * Air Force @ UNLV | 11.5 | 36-24 |
 * Wisconsin @ Iowa | 6.6 | 33-13 |
 * Florida State @ NC St. | 5 | 31-11 |
 * Nebraska @ Iowa State | 5 | 31-12 |
 * Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky | 5 | 35-15 |
 * LSU @ S. Carolina | 5 | 39-13 |
 * USC @ Washington St. | 5 | 33-9 |
 * Ohio State @ Michigan State | 5 | 35-9 |

Updated FBS Standings through Week 8


 * Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |
 * Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | WF | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 6 - 1 | 4 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Duke | 1 - 5 | 3 - 3 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 1 - 6 | 1 - 6 |
 * Big East | W. Virginia | 6 - 0 | 6 - 0 |
 * Big East | South Florida | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Big East | Cincinnati | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
 * Big East | Connecticut | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big East | Louisville | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Big East | Pittsburgh | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Big East | Rutgers | 2 - 5 | 4 - 3 |
 * Big East | Syracuse | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Big Ten | Ohio State | 8 - 0 | 8 - 0 |
 * Big Ten | Illinois | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Indiana | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Wisconsin | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Ten | Iowa | 4 - 4 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Penn State | 4 - 4 | 5 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Northwestern | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Purdue | 6 - 1 | 4 - 3 |
 * Big Ten | Michigan State | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
 * Big Ten | Minn. | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 7 - 0 | 7 - 0 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Missouri | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Big Twelve | Kansas State | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Big Twelve | Nebraska | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Big Twelve | Colorado | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Big Twelve | Baylor | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | Tulsa | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 |
 * Conference USA | Houston | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | UCF | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Conference USA | East Carolina | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Conference USA | Marshall | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | Rice | 4 - 3 | 3 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | S. Miss | 4 - 3 | 3 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | Memphis | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | SMU | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | Tulane | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
 * Conference USA | UTEP | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Conference USA | UAB | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 3 - 3 | 4 - 2 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Navy | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Army | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mid-American | Ball State | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Mid-American | W. Michigan | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | C. Michigan | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | Kent St. | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Mid-American | Bowling Green | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Buffalo | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Ohio | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | Temple | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Mid-American | E. Michigan | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Mid-American | Toledo | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Mid-American | Akron | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |
 * Mountain West | Utah | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | Brigham Young | 7 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
 * Mountain West | TCU | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |
 * Mountain West | Air Force | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Mountain West | Wyoming | 3 - 4 | 4 - 3 |
 * Mountain West | New Mexico | 5 - 3 | 4 - 4 |
 * Mountain West | Colorado St. | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Mountain West | UNLV | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Pacific-10 | USC | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
 * Pacific-10 | California | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | UCLA | 3 - 4 | 4 - 3 |
 * Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |
 * Pacific-10 | Washington | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
 * Pacific-10 | Stanford | 1 - 7 | 1 - 7 |
 * Southeastern | Georgia | 7 - 0 | 7 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | LSU | 7 - 0 | 7 - 0 |
 * Southeastern | Florida | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
 * Southeastern | Alabama | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Southeastern | Auburn | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
 * Southeastern | Kentucky | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Southeastern | S. Carolina | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi State | 3 - 4 | 4 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Mississippi | 3 - 4 | 4 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Tennessee | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Southeastern | Arkansas | 2 - 5 | 3 - 4 |
 * Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 7 | 1 - 6 |
 * Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 |
 * Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | North Texas | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | Troy | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 |
 * Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 7 | 1 - 6 |
 * Western Athletic | Boise State | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
 * Western Athletic | Nevada | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Fresno State | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
 * Western Athletic | Hawaii | 3 - 4 | 4 - 3 |
 * Western Athletic | Idaho | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
 * Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 2 - 4 | 3 - 3 |
 * Western Athletic | San Jose State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 |
 * Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
 * Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 7 | 1 - 6 |

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that - and it's completely FREE for a limited time ( $10.95 value). From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school. Play for free today using the promo code BTBGD.

Promo code is valid for new Gridiron Dynasty users in first season only. Offer expires 12/31/2008.

''We hope that you enjoy our Beyond the Boxscore feature. As with all of our games, we are willing to listen to feedback and improve this page and content to make it as interesting and user-friendly as possible. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, please contact [mailto:btb@whatifsports.com BtB@whatifsports.com]. Thanks!''

Whatifsports specializes in answering the great "What if?" questions in sports by simulating games between historical teams, and has exciting simulation games for MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, college basketball and college football.

'' Game of the Week: #14 Wake Forest 26 (5-1) @ Maryland 23 (5-2) Wake Forest is a bit of a surprise team that the computer loves, with Riley Skinner and Josh Adams on offense and a defense that is at least as talented top to bottom. The Demon Deacons get a big test in this game on the road against a 5-1 Maryland squad that has watched its offense really come into its own over the first six weeks of the season. Wake's defense is the difference as the team wins 65.6% of the time and by just three points 26-23.