Article:Week 4 NFL picks from The Sports Brief

Anybody watch “The Office” last night? Easily a top five episode of all time full of great moments. My personal favorite was when Kelly hit the floor like a bag of bricks during the weigh-in. Michael Klump was pretty ridiculous, as well. You could probably list a hundred different enjoyable tidbits from that episode and still leave something out.

The Jim/Pam proposal was a bittersweet moment for me, though. Tara had predicted at the end of last season that Jim not proposing meant they were going to have the two of them drift apart in Season 5. I refused to believe it, but when I saw Pam go off to Design school, the writing was on the wall. Then there was the scene where that dork commented on his “ex-girlfriend” being right behind them, pleading that no one look. Obviously they did and it turned out to be an 80-year old professor. I called it on the spot that Pam would get with that guy because he was just like Jim. Tara refused to agree, saying it wouldn’t be the jokester from the hallway, so we bet a dinner at Turner’s on it. Moments later Jim and Pam were having trouble making plans and Jim mentioned they hadn’t seen each other in 10 days. I gave a fist pump and an “I told you so” across the couch, then ate my foot when he dropped to a knee outside the gas station in the pouring rain. Pretty solid work on Jim’s part, I give him credit. But I’m wondering if this nullifies our bet or if I’ve lost. I argue that Tara and I both agreed they would drift apart, and the bet was on whether or not Pam would get with that geek from the hallway. Regardless, I’m pissed I didn’t win the bet. I thought I had that one pegged from a mile away.

Onto the picks…

Keefe and I tied last week, but he maintains honors due to his victory in Week 2. For Random Rob, I put four pieces of paper in a cup with the words “Home”, “Away”, “Favorite” and “Underdog” on them. Each game I drew one of the slips out of the cup and based on the word, selected a team to which that word applied. For example, I drew “Underdog” for the Browns/Bengals tilt, so the Browns got the nod since they are getting 3.5 points.

Keefe’s picks Last week: 10-6 Overall: 26-21 Browns +3.5 over Bengals Battle of 0-3 teams from Ohio. Derek Anderson could very well be playing for his job, remember last year’s battle with 11 TDs in the air? Expect a lot of points once again.

Vikings +3.5 over Titans Vikings great run D will make Chris Johnson and Lendale White much less effective thus making Kerry Collins open it up, may very well equal their first loss.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs Chiefs might just be the worst team in football not named the Rams. Cutler and Marshall continue their record breaking ways.

49ers +6.5 over Saints I expect another high scoring affair here. No Coleston, no Shockey, no cover.

Cardinals +2.5 over Jets You see the Jets on MNF? Not as good as I predicted them to be. Darrelle Revis is good, but he can’t stop both Fitzgerald and Boldin.

Packers +1.5 over Buccaneers Is Brian Griese going to throw the ball 67 times again? He might, no Al Harris will be a big loss for the Packers’ D, but not enough in this one.

Falcons +7.5 over Panthers I like Michael Turner. The sneaky Falcons will at least keep this one close.

Texans +7.5 over Jaguars I know the Jags finally won a game last weekend, but I am not a fan. I think they’re the most over hyped team in football. Texans have struggled, but I think their defense keep them in it.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders Chargers made some plays on D last week. LT doesn’t look 100%, but Sproles does and the Raiders are terrible. Is Lane Kiffin still the coach?

Bills -8.5 over Rams Buffalo 4-0? Looks like it. What quarter does Trent Green get hurt? I’ll do middle of the 3rd. Keep an eye on this.

Cowboys -11.5 over Redskins Dallas certainly looks like the best team in football after the first 3 weeks. Despite a division game, I think they still roll.

Eagles -3.5 over Bears The NFC East may have 3 of the top 5 teams in all of football. Donovan will get back on track passing the ball after a grind it out victory over the Steelers last week.

Ravens +7.5 over Steelers Monday Night Football could be ugly with Joe Flacco at the helm. But no Willie Parker, can Mendenhall hold on to the ball? The Ravens could even go 3-0, not as bad a game as I first thought.

Besse’s picks Last week: 10-6 Overall: 25-22 Browns +3.5 over Bengals I think Cincy wins on a late field goal. But bet the Over and bet it heavy. This has the makings of another wild shootout, much like last year’s game. Anderson will save his job for another week, but Palmer, Housh and Ocho get the best of the Browns.

Vikings +3.5 over Titans Vikings defense is potent and will not only shut down the run, but force Kerry Collins into some ill-advised throws. Low scoring affair here, but the Vikings win outright.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs Shannon Sharpe may need to call the National Guard for this one, much like he did against the Pats several years ago. It will be ugly in so many ways.

Saints -6.5 over 49ers I love the way the Saints played last week in a heartbreaking loss to the Broncos. At home against the 49ers, I think it’s a shootout but Brees and Bush will pull ahead late and cover.

Cardinals +2.5 over Jets I don’t like the Cardinals traveling cross country for the second straight week, but I don’t like the Jets, period. Warner and Co. will light up the skies and Favre’s bum ankle won’t be able to keep pace. Cardinals secondary has been stingy, by the way. Anyone else notice that yet?

Bucs -1.5 over Packers Jon Gruden is proving himself once again as one of the best, and most underrated coaches in the game. His defense will prevail in this one, pressuring Aaron Rodgers much like the Cowboys did last week.

Panthers -7.5 over Falcons Panthers have kept Tomlinson, Forte and Peterson at bay the first three weeks of the season. They’ll load up 7 or 8 in the box this week and force Matt Ryan to make some uncomfortable throws. And Steve Smith will break out.

Jaguars -7.5 over Texans Jaguars at home coming off a big win over Indy. I don’t expect a let down. The running game will have another big week and cover in a mini shootout.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders Lane Kiffin has kept the Raiders competitive in Week 2 and 3 and should probably be 2-1 right now. Regardless, his team will get lit up by San Diego and give Al Davis a reason to fire him. I don’t agree with the rumors swirling around Kiffin’s firing now and I won’t agree with it when it happens, either.

Rams +8.5 over Bills Rams will win outright in a big upset. This could be a track meet in St. Louis, and while I’m concerned for Trent Green’s livelihood this week, I think he’ll survive and win.

Redskins +11.5 over Cowboys Dallas has made some careless mistakes and shown flashes of vulnerability. I still think they’re the best team in the NFL and the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but the Redskins will put up a fight. The outcome won’t be decided until the final minutes, so look for the Skins to cover.

Eagles -3.5 over Bears The Bears should really draft a quarterback this year. A good one. This is a great matchup for Philly, and whether Westbrook plays or not won’t really matter. Buckhalter is as good a back as any in this league when healthy, so the offense shouldn’t skip a beat.

Ravens +7.5 over Steelers This could be as bad a Monday Night game as we’ve seen in a longtime. Flacco at QB, Big Ben playing hurt and Willie Parker out. It will be exciting only because neither team will be able to score and thus it will be close. Bet your mortgage on the under.

Random Rob’s picks Last week: 8-8 Overall: 29-18 Browns Titans Broncos Saints Cardinals Packers Panthers Jaguars Chargers Bills Cowboys Eagles Ravens  -Bess