Article:KD's 2008 National League Preview

2008 National League Preview
Since I live on the West Coast, I'll go ahead and start with the Western Divisions first.

Maybe it's true, there are four teams in the NL West who could win the division or finish fourth. That may be due to the overall lack of quality in the National League as opposed to all four teams being competetive. I personally think the old cliche' of the "cream always rising to the top" is true when it comes to sports, and in reality there are only two teams realistically capable of winning the West.

NL West
1) San Diego Padres

There is an old cliche which says "pitching and defense wins championships", and the San Diego Padres certainly have a surplus of both. The rotation of Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, Chris Young, Randy Wolf and either the surprising Mark Prior or Justin Germano may be, top to bottom, the best rotation in all of baseball. Former Tigers lefty Wil Ledezma has been dominating in the spring so far, if Prior is unable to go out of the gate he may grab the fifth starter role early on. The bullpen is again led by all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who will be set up by Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, and Carlos Guevera. Around the horn is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, coming off a 30 HR, 100 RBI season. Free agent Tadihito Iguchi was brought in to handle second base after the ill-advised Marcus Giles experiment. Shortstop Khalil Greene, healthy for the first time, put himself into the discussion of the elite shortstops in the game. Admittedly, Kevin Kouzmanoff is a weak spot defensively at third and the Padres are actively seeking to move him, with top prospect Chase Headley waiting in the wings. Headley, a switchhitting power prospect has been moved to left field as a way of getting his bat in the lineup every day. With Jim Edmonds on board to play center but likely to begin the season on the DL, centerfield will temporarily belong to Scott Hairston and Rule V draftee Calix Crabbe, who can play all over the diamond. Brian Giles, recovering from microfracture surgery on his righ knee, made his first appearance of the spring on March 17th, and although Giles reported no pain, he likely will begin the season on the DL. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett handle the catching duties, adequately.

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite the signing of ex-Braves slugger Andruw Jones to a free-agent contract, the Los Angeles Dodgers most important offseason move may be an off-field one, the hiring of Joe Torre as their new manager. Torre brings with him twelve years of success managing in the Bronx and a handful of World Series rings. On the field, the only significant move was the signing of Jones, which moves the weak-armed Juan Pierre to left field and Andre Ethier, a .284 hitter last year as a regular, to the bench. Rookie Andy LaRoche, the brother of Pittsburgh's Adam, won the thirdbase job with a strong start to spring training but a torn ligament in his thumb which required surgery will keep him out until mid-May at the earliest. Nomar Garciaparra, who was scheduled to handle the hot corner in LaRoche's absence, broke his hand when hit by a pitch and will be out until mid-May, and reserve Tony Abreu is also dealing with an injury (hamstring]], so the Dodgers will likely grab someone off the waiver wire. Jeff Kent and Rafael Furcal return to handle the middle of the infield. On the mound, Kuroda is the only addition to a questionable at best pitching rotation. Healthy, the combination of Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Esteban Loaiza is a proven, veteran laden staff. Unhealthy, as has been the case in the recent past, they all struggle mightily, and even with a planned mid-season return of Jason Schmidt may lack a solid go-to guy. All-Star Russell Martin handles the duties behind the plate with Gary Bennett and former Mariner Rene Rivera in camp battling for the backup spot.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks became just the seventh team in ML history to reach the postseason despite being outscored by their opponents. The Dbacks were a league best 32-20 in one run games and didn't have a losing month the entire season. It doesn't take much to figure out the reason they managed to win 90 games despite the appearance of inadequecy was a group of young guys playing for the sake of playing and achieving numbers not expected so early in their careers. Centerfielder Chris Young, despite a .237 batting average, hit a team leading 32 homers, American League cast-off Eric Byrnes found himself in the All-Star game and led the team with a mere 83 RBI. Lightning, however, does not strike twice in the same place, and the Dbacks took steps to disprove that theory by sending five prospects to the Oakland Athletics for ace Dan Haren. Haren, a fly ball pitcher, is moving from a pitchers park in Oakland to an extreme hitters park in Arizona. He joins a rotation which features 2006 NL Cy Young winner and 2007 runner-up Brandon Webb, he of the game's best sinker. Doug Davis, Micah Owings and Randy Johnson round out the rotation, with Edgar Gonzalez ready to step in, expecially considering Johnson's age and recovering from back surgery. Last years NL saves leader Jose Valverde was traded to Houston, the Dbacks have named Brandon Lyon his replacement. If Lyon struggles, Juan Cruz, Tony Pena and Chad Qualls, obtained as part of the Valverde deal, ready to step in. Behind the plate, last years two main receivers return in Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero, although Montero has been slow to recover from a broken finger sustained in the off-season, leaving utility man Robbie Hammock as the backup catcher for the first couple weeks of the season. The rest of the team remains unchanged, with only minor tweaking to the roster taking place since the end of the season. Gone is backup first baseman and clubhouse leader Tony Clark. Chris Burke, another aquiree from Houston, takes over as the teams "super-sub", capable of playing anywhere on the diamond except pitcher. Jeff Salazar is the fourth outfielder, with Augie Ojeda penciled in as the backup at short and second. Chad Tracy, recovering from microfracture surgery, is the backup at both first and third and has been informed by Manager Bob Melvin he will remain in the reserve role when he returns healthy.

4) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies turned the hottest end of season streak into their first World Series appearance, where they were knocked back into reality by the powerful Boston Red Sox. On September 16th, the Rockies were four games over .500, in fourth place in the West and trailed the Diamondbacks by 6.5 games. Over their last fifteen games, the Rox won 14, and found themselves the NL Wild Card winners. Longer group research scenarios carry more weight than shorter ones, so in reality the Rockies are a slightly better than .500 team who capitilized on a hot streak more than a dominating team who coasted through the season to the postseason. In the Rockies favor is their home field, among the intangibles not in their favor is their home field. Despite the presence of Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe is the unenviable task of needing to score six or seven runs every game just to have a realistic shot at victory. The Rockies starting lineup remains virtually unchanged, with only second base featuring a different player, with 2007 World Cup MVP Jayson Nix replacing Kazuo Matsui, who departed to Houston via free agency. There has been some positional experimentation taking place in spring training with the intent of getting the bat of young slugger Ian Stewart into the lineup. A solid defensive third baseman, Stewart has been tried at second base, with incumbent third sacker Garrett Atkins seeing time in left, and RF Brad Hawpe in center. The Rockies rotation is highlighted by a good mix and balance, hard throwing lefty Franklin Morales and righty Ubaldo Jimenez, and off speed pitchers lefty Jeff Francis and righty Aaron Cook, with journeymen Jason Hirsch, Mark Redman and Kip Wells battling for the fifth spot. The Rockies bullpen figures to be a tough spot throughout the season, with newly minted closer Manny Corpas being set up by Luis Vizcaino, Brian Fuentes and Taylor Buchholz. Behind the plate, second year man Chris Iannetta should see most of the playing time with Yorvit Torrealba an acceptable backup.

5) San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are a team in transition. Barry Zito, signed to a mega-free agent deal, went 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA in his first season by the Bay. Starting shortstop Omar Vizquel had knee surgery at the beginning of spring training and may not return til mid-May, if that. Kevin Frandsen was given first crack at replacing Vizquel and he fell flat on his face, and will now miss the season after tearing his Achilles. The job now belonging to someone named Brian Bocock, whose next major league game will be his first. The Giants did somehow manage to win the Aaron Rowand sweepstakes, securing the centerfielder's services out from under the noses of the Philadelphia Phillies. The remaining infielders are Dan Ortmeier at first, Ray Durham at second and Rich Aurilia at third. Aurilia replaces the also departed Pedro Feliz, who, ironically, is in Philly. Speedster Eugenio Velez appears to have won the utility infield spot. Dave Roberts in left and Randy Winn in right flank Rowand, with Rajai Davis the fourth OF. On paper, the Giants rotation is solid, although Noah Lowery will miss time with a shoulder injury. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum along with Kevin Correia round out the rotation. Brian Wilson is the closer, with Ty Walker, Brad Hennessey, Steve Kline and Vinny Chulk rounding out a very suspect bullpen.

NL Central
1) Cincinnati Reds

The question here shouldn't be "why?", but "why not?" The Central is easily the worst division in baseball, and while no team will lose 100 games, I don't see a team winning 90, or even 87 for that matter. No one can doubt the Reds will score runs, so while on principle the trading of Josh Hamilton may have come as a surprise, it really shouldn't when you look at the return. Edinson Volquez has solid stuff, and pitched well enough in the spring to nail down the #2 spot in the rotation. The Reds also signed Francisco Cordero, formerly of the Brewers, to be their closer the next four years. With a solid ace in Aaron Harang, counting on a bounceback season from Bronson Arroyo, and contributions from minor league gems Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, the Reds pitching is decidedly better today than at any time last season. The bullpen is a strength now, with guys moving back into roles they are more suited for; Todd Coffey and lefty Bobby Livingston slide into the sixth and seventh inning spots, with former closer David Weathers becoming Cordero's set-up man. The only changes on the offensive side will be utility man Ryan Freel manning third base while Edwin Encarnacion is on the DL, Norris Hopper holding down CF for a month or so until Jay Bruce is ready, and rookie Joey Votto taking over full-time at first base. The Reds also have a new sherriff in town, Dusty Baker is the new manager. Baker is a veteran's manager and has had in the past the reputation for mis-handling young pitchers, the sending down of Bailey last week so he can continue working on his delivery is a good sign that maybe Baker's mindset has changed after some time away from the dugout.

2) Chicago Cubs

Alot of thought went into this pick and the decision ultimately came down to two words: Kerry Wood. There's been a comment or two here stating basically, "Wood won't last a month" as the Cubs closer. Well, I'm here to tell you he will. I saw him throw earlier this spring and I've never seen him look better, and that includes physically as well. He is in awesome shape, he's taken some weight off and looks really solid through the chest and shoulders. Wood's main problem as a starter were his mechanics, his delivery was too fast, putting strain on the arm until if finally exploded. To slow himself down, he now throws exclusively from the stretch, and still hits 97 on the gun, further proof that he is healthy and strong. The Cubs made a few minor off-season moves but they were more a roster cleaning than a re-stocking. Their new catcher, rookie Geovany Soto is a product of their own minor league system. New CF Felix Pie is as well, and will finally be given a shot to see if he is a ML caliber player. The Cubs did sign former Japanese All-Star Kosuke Fukudome and he will play rightfield. One move that manager Lou Piniella has made which I personally like is dropping Alfonso Soriano to the two spot in the order. Frustrated at Soriano's inability to work counts and swing for the fences finally got to Piniella, Ryan Theriot now mans the leadoff spot. Pinella has also removed the green light from Soriano on the bases, his running at will with no conception of the situation disrupted the hitters behind him so much that Sweet Lou finally said enough.

3) Milwaukee Brewers

So Chris Capuano decided to try and re-hab his torn elbow ligament and not have surgery? Who gave you that brilliant advice Chris, Curt Schilling]? The Brewers surprised alot of people last year with their hot start, before fading down the stretch. The primary reason wasn't the hitters not hitting or the pitchers not pitching, it was the defense. The Brewers finished 13th in the NL in team defense, and finished last in the majors in infield defense. Only shortstop J.J. Hardy graded at average or above, and he did so just barely. [[Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun were all far below average defensively, with third baseman Braun turning in one of the worst seasons in ML history. The Brewers tweaked the defense a bit during the off-season, signing free agent Mike Cameron to handle center, although he must sit out the first 25 games after being suspended for using a controlled substance. Backup Tony Gwynn Jr. is a solid defensive player and should handle the CF duties just fine until Cameron returns. The signing of Cameron allowed the Brewers to move Billy Hall to third base, where he has played before and did OK. Braun now plays leftfield, I did get a chance to see him play, and he was brutal. Corey Hart is solid in right, as is the Brewers catching tandem of Jason Kendall (defense) and Mike Rivera (offense). The Brewers made eight major league transactions in the off-season, with six involving relief pitchers. The strangest was the inexplicable $10 million given to a washed up Eric Gagne. No lead will be safe when Gagne comes into the game carrying his gas can with him. The Brewers starters took a hit in the spring with the knee injury to Yovani Gallardo who will be out until May 1, the previously discussed Capuano situation and the releasing of Claudio Vargas. If ace Ben Sheets has his usual assortment of minor injuries and if rookie Manny Parra struggles, then the Brewers will struggle, no matter how many runs they score.

4) Pittsburgh Pirates

Similar to my third place pick of the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, I don't believe the Pirates are actually good enough to finish this high on their own merit, it's just fact there are two worse teams in the division than they are. On better teams, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzalanny would get the same attention given young stars such as Jered Weaver, Snell especially, he has legitimate #1 stuff and potential. With Zach Duke, veteran Matt Morris and Paul Maholm filling out the staff, Pittsburgh has put together their best rotation in quite awhile. The catching duo of Ronny Paulino and Ryan Doumit is a good one, not spectacular, but solid. It's no secret the Pirates would love to unload upcoming free agent shortstop Jack Wilson, but have yet to find a taker. First baseman Adam LaRoche proved himself overrated after his overachieving 2006 season in Atlanta, third baseman Jose Bautista and injury prone (and injured again as we speak]] Freddy Sanchez round out the infield. In Sanchez' absence, either Chris Gomez or Brian Bixler will fill in. The Pirates' strength in in their outfield. Former starter Chris Duffy will battle Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan for the CF job, with holdovers Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in left and right, respectively. There are trade rumors around both players (Bay to Cleveland, Nady to the Mets), but for now both remain. If he's not traded, a key to any improvement has to be a resurgence from Bay. Injured at times last season, he also played with an indifferent attitude at times and must re-focus himself to return to his previous success.

5) St. Louis Cardinals

So, let's see. The Cardinals start the season with four of their starting rotation either injured or in some form of rehab, Chris Carpenter, Matt Clement, Joel Piniero and Mark Mulder. Their starting first baseman and arguably a top five player in the game, Albert Pujols, has a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Their catching combo, Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue, can't hit, and their left fielder, Chris Duncan, can't catch the ball. The Cards are so desperate for offense they invited 38 year old Juan Gonzalez to camp, hoping he had enough left to at least secure the fourth outfielder spot. He didn't. A couple bright spots should be Rule V draftee Brian Barton, a 6'3" speedster picked up from Cleveland. Barton has the speed and arm to play either CF or RF, he'll likely play in center until top prospect Colby Rasmus is ready, which should be sometime in May. Rick Ankiel and Duncan handle the corners, with utility man Skip Schumacher grabbing a start here and there if needed.

6) Houston Astros

The 'Stros are loaded with offense, picking up Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton amd Michael Bourn to go along with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. The problem is that while all these guys can hit the crap out of the ball, crap also describes their ability to catch it. And other than Roy Oswalt, the pitching rotation looks like leftovers from a Rule V draft. The only real bright spot heading into the season is the continued development of Pence and catcher J.R. Towles.

NL East
1) Philadelphia Phillies

Offensively, the Phillies are close in stature to the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers, they have guys up and down the lineup who can rake. The infield consists of 2006 MVP Ryan Howard at first, 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins at short, and arguably the teams best player, Chase Utley, at second. Wes Helms will handle third base at the outset, and while he too provides some pop, his defense isn't exactly Gold Glove material. In the outfield, the Phils take a step down, both offensively and defensively. In his walk year is LF Pat Burrell, my sleeper for NL MVP, former two time Rule V draftee Shane Victorio replaces the departed Aaron Rowand (San Francisco]] and free agent signee Geoff Jenkins sharing RF with Jayson Werth. On the mound, the Phils upgraded their rotation by NOT making a deal, they just returned Brett Myers to the rotation. Alongside rookie surprise Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer and rookie enigma Cole Hamels, the Phils should be able to avoid a long losing streak. Adam Eaton and J.D. Durbin will fight for the fifth and final rotation spot, maybe the Phils will return to the glory days of old and use a four man rotation. Coming from Houston in the Michael Bourn deal is closer Brad Lidge, who, despite a minor knee injury early in camp has thrown well and hopes a change of scenery can re-invigorate his career.

2) New York Mets

The acquisition of Johan Santana unquestionably helped the Mets. The acquisition of Johan Santana unquestionably hurt the Mets. The Mets unloaded four of their top seven prospects for Santana, and with them having the oldest starting nine in baseball, a serious injury to one of their core players and they will have trouble finishing second. They've already lost Moises Alou and reserve Endy Chavez to injury. Superstar Carlos Beltran had off-season surgery on both knees and reports have him in the best shape of his life, maybe he'll finally turn in the Triple Crown type season long expected of him. A minor deal in the off-season had the Mets and Nationals swapping outfielders, with Ryan Church coming on board to replace the retired Shawn Green in rightfield. With Chavez injured, Angel Pagan becomes the fourth outfielder. The left side of the Mets infield, David Wright and Jose Reyes, is the best in the National League (although they rank #2 in New York). Carlos Delgado and the light-hitting Luis Castillo fill the right side, with Anderson Hernandez and Julio Gotay the reserves. In the earlier mentioned trade with the Nationals came catcher Brian Schneider who will replace Paul LoDuca, who left to sign with, ironically, Washington. Besides Santana, the Mets rotation features the inconsistent John Maine, the returning from injury Pedro Martinez, the ancient Orlando Hernandez and former first rounder and underperforming Mike Pelfrey. Counting Santana, if everyone stays healthy and toes the rubber every fifth day, the Mets rotation would be considered questionable at best. The bullpen has a few names, Jorge Sosa and Scott Schoenweis, and a few no-names, Brian Stokes and Rule V draftee Steven Register. Seriously, a serious injury anywhere on this team and .500 would be an accomplishment.

3) Washington Nationals

Despite no significant off-season moves in the off-season, the Nationals are a far better team today than at this time last year. Before getting into the team itself, Washington will move into their new stadium this year, a much more hitter friendly park than RFK Stadium was. And yes, I know their pitchers have to pitch to the opponents hitters in the same park, but they don't call it home field advantage for nothing. What I like about Washington, and why they are picked higher than Atlanta, is the minor league system. Washington has five just about ready prospects who should make at worst an appearance in Washington this season, and at best a significant contribution, specifically outfielder Justin Maxwell and pitcher Ross Detwiler. The Nats now have a solid, five man outfield with Lastings Milledge, (over from the Mets), Elijah Dukes, (from Tampa), Rule V pickup Garrett Guzman, and holdovers Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns. The infield is solid top to bottom as well, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, shortstop Felipe Lopez, second baseman Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young at first. The Nats also signed Aaron Boone to a free agent deal, he'll backup at third and first, and don't forget about Nick Johnson returning from injury. Paul LoDuca came on board via free agency, and while the rotation has a bunch of unrecognizable names, the Nats felt secure enough in their ability they released former #1 starter John Patterson

4) Atlanta Braves

Look at the Braves roster and you'll see some familiar names, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Chipper Jones. The difference is this isn't 1998, and these guys aren't 25-30 years old anymore and in the prime of their careers. Smoltz is 40 and has already experienced shoulder problems this year. Glavine is 42 and clearly doing nothing but hanging around. The Braves are so desperate they have given a starting spot to Mike Hampton who has battled injuries for years and hasn't thrown a pitch in a ML game since 2005. Chuck James and Tim Hudson are both coming off solid seasons, and rookie Jair Jurrgens is a highly rated prospect. Former closer Mike Gonzalez is back but recovering from Tommy John surgery, the closer role now belongs to hard throwing ex-Mariner Rafael Soriano. What the Braves are going to be hard pressed to do is replace the 40 homers Andruw Jones took with him to the West Coast. The three remaining outfielders, Jeff Francoeur, Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz likely won't hit 40 HR combined. The infield is anchored by superstar Mark Teixeira, who is in his walk year and whose next contract will start in the 8 year, 153 million range the Tigers just gave to Miguel Cabrera. Chipper at third, youngster Yunel Escobar at short and Kelly Johnson at second round out the infield. Brian McCann, entering his third full year will give us a true impression of the real Brian McCann, although we don't know yet which one that will be, the McCann of 2006, or the McCann of 2007, in which he struggled.

5) Florida Marlins

In 1969, the expansion Montreal Expos and San Diego Padres each lost 110 games, the Marlins and San Francisco Giants could each approach that number this season. For the first time ever, the Marlins are no longer the worst team in Florida. This is a bad baseball team. Catcher Matt Treanor's highlight is marrying US Olympic volleyball star Misty May. Dan Uggla? A slugging second baseman who strikes out at an alarming rate and has defensive issues. Alfredo Almezaga? Cody Ross? Josh Willingham? Somewhat familiar names, probably from being reserves on other teams. Even star shortstop Hanley Ramirez' numbers will take a big hit without the protection of Miguel Cabrera around him. The rotation is in the same boat, a handful of guys picked up off other team's scrap heap. Need further proof? Mark Hendrickson, dispatched by his third team in the past four years, is the opening day starter. Hope may come after the All-Star break in the form of top minor league prospect, righthanded starter Chris Volstad and outfielder Cameron Maybin, the 21 year old centerfielder obtained from Detroit in the Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis deal.

As mentioned, the West and Central each have three or four teams who could conceivably win the division title. Each division also has one team capable of losing 100 games or more, with the Central having two, (Cardinals and Astros). In season moves could sway one or more division races, if that is the case the Rockies become the favorites in the West because of a deeper minor league system. I believe all three races, (four, actually, the wild card) will come down to the wire, and while there won't be a 100 game winner in the NL, probably not a 95 either, the races should all be tighter than what will happen in the AL.

I see the Wild Card winner coming from either the West or East, with the Mets, Phillies, Padres and Dodgers all being really close. I see the Dodgers pitching outlasting the Mets, and with the Dodgers fattening up on the Giants giving them a slight advantage. So the postseason looks like this, Padres, Reds and Phillies as division winners, with the Dodgers winning the wild card. The Phillies will have the best record, so their first round opponent will be the Dodgers, and they will take care of them pretty easily. The Reds, backed by mid-season call-ups Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, and led all season by a healthy and motivated Ken Griffey Jr., take out the Padres in the other series. The NLCS will be a run scoring affair with the Phillies, behind the power of Burrell, Howard, Utley and Rollins and the ever improving Cole Hamels taking on the surprising Reds. With Junior sparked on by the prospect of finally getting to the World Series, and two dominating starts by Bailey, the Reds edge the Phillies in six games and return to the World Series for the first time in twenty years.