Article:Trade Winds are Blowing, and I'm not talking about the Weather

In case you haven't noticed, trading before the deadline has become a forgotten item. Since the advent of free agency in 1975, activity in the trade market has decreased almost every year. Teams would rather pick up a cheap veteran player of waivers, or call up one of their minor league prospects to fill a hole. The subsequent result has given Major League Baseball the scenario it has long dreamed of...parity. Now baseball is, unfortunately, the same as every other sport.

Today, 24 of the 30 MLB teams are within 8 games of the lead in their respective divisions. A part of this has been the adding of a wild card team to the postseason, and the splitting division play from two to three in each league. Postseason participants doubled then, from four to eight.

Last season's National League Champions, the Colorado Rockies, are currently fifteen games below .500, and are tied, with the San Diego Padres for last place in the NL West. Yet they both trail the first place Arizona Diamondbacks by just eight games. Perhaps fueling themselves off last year's miracle finish, (21-1 the final three weeks of the season), the Rockies have placed on hold their planned roster purging at the deadline. With star second year shortstop Troy Tulowitzki set to return from injury, and with startersMatt Holliday and Brad Hawpe struggling, the Rockies feel a return to form by their leaders is all they need to get back in contention. So, instead of being sellers, the Rockies may become buyers, in the market for an offensive second baseman and a lefty swinging catcher.

Another factor is there are less players available. Teams are now signing their young stars to long term deals before they become arbitration eligible. Chris Young in Arizona, and Evan Longoria in Tampa have both signed long term deals, with neither having a full ML season under their belts. Having a mix of veteran and young players signed long term means teams have fewer pieces missing, making shopping through the trade market, (and the draft) much easier.

This isn't to say there won't be any activity. With so many teams so close to the postseason, some may feel they are one player away from closing the gap, yet do not have anyone in the farm system ready to fill that gap quite yet. Below is my personal reflection on some teams who have needs, and some players who may fill those needs.

Atlanta Braves: Trail in their division by four and a half games, in the wild card by six. Mark Teixeira is clearly the top target, both on the trade market and in next year's free agent sweepstakes. And he has done nothing to hurt his status at the top of the list, with four homers in the past week. It would behoove Atlanta to keep him, Tex is one of the better second half players over the last few seasons, and even if he went elsewhere in free agency, the Braves would score two first round picks as compensation. Teixeira also played his college ball in Atlanta with Georgia Tech, despite being represented by Scott Boras, the Braves certainly could qualify for a hometown discount.

The Braves do need an outfielder, however, and desperately. With new CF Mark Kotsay again struggling with his recurring back problems, and with Jeff Francoeur proving once and for all he is a one year wonder, an offensive boost is needed, big time. Top minor league prospect Jordan Schafer is a centerfielder, but has only recently returned to action after missing fifty games due to minor league drug suspension. If pushed hard enough, the Kansas City Royals could part with the underrated David DeJesus, although there are other teams pushing as well, which raises the stakes. Good news for Braves fans on the pitching front, Mike Hampton threw 30 pitches in a rehab start this past Monday and didn't hurt himself!

With Curt Schilling out for the season, and with David Ortiz likely to follow, the Boston Red Sox could use a bottom of the rotation starter and a lefty bat with some pop. A possiblity for the rotation is the Padres Randy Wolf. The Pads likely wouldn't ask for much in return, as Wolf is a free agent at the end of the season, and, as a Type B free agent, would bring no compensation through the draft.

Teixera to Boston would be interesting, however, the Sox aren't going to mortgage their system for a three month rental. A solid possiblity to replace Big Papi in the DH slot is the Mets' Carlos Delgado. Himself a free agent at year's end, the Sox could ride Delgado if he gets hot, and let him walk in November with only a World Series ring to show for their troubles. A cheaper option for the Sox, both in what they would give up, and salary, is the Diamondbacks Chad Tracy. Tracy has played well in his brief time following microfracture surgery on his right knee, including the just ended three game series in Boston. Tracy, a poor defensive player before the surgery, would be a good fit in the DH role for Boston.

It's no secret the Pittsburgh Pirates need a top of the rotation starter, and the Cleveland Indians need a righthanded hitting outfielder with pop. Would both teams consider a C.C. Sabathia for Jason Bay swap? Not likely, although I could see a Bay for Paul Byrd deal. Its common knowledge the Indians have been after Bay since last year's deadline, I would be surprised if he wasn't moved this year, and equally surprised if Cleveland was outbid for his services.

Under the terms of his contract, the full no-trade clause for Adam Dunn expired on June 15th. He then submitted a list of ten teams to the Reds front office to whom he could be traded. If he does move, it likely won't be until right before the July 31st deadline, his presence in any contender's lineup could make the difference between postseason baseball or postseason golf.

The Tampa Bay Rays, despite playing briefly without ace Scott Kazmir and first baseman Carlos Pena, have surprised everyone by remaining in the race. Even with Pena, the Rays have a righty dominated lineup, especially in the OF. Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd have played well when called upon, but neither are capable of playing rightfield on an every day basis. Tampa is looking for a veteran, lefty hitter to move into the top half of their lineup and who is capable of playing solid defense in rightfield. The Rays are willing to move Edwin Jackson for the right piece of the puzzle, that piece could be Brian Giles.

The Seattle Mariners are unquestionably the most disappointing team in baseball to date. Expected to contend, the M's currently have baseball's worse record. Even more surprising to them has been the attitude shown by pitcher Eric Bedard. Long thought to have an overall lack of desire and drive to the ace pitcher thought of him, the Mariners figured getting out of the doldrums in Baltimore would bring out the ace buried inside. Instead, the opposite has occured. Bedard has missed two starts this season for what could be called questionable reasons. He is a native of Canada and would love to pitch in Toronto, although some other contenders, most notably the Philadelphia Phillies, could come calling on the Mariners with an offer they can't refuse.

Looking at the top of the AL Central, two of the more surprising teams in the league are holding on, although their respective grips are loosening. Neither the Chicago White Sox or the Minnesota Twins are nearly as good as their first half records indicate, and by the trade deadline I expect both to be below .500, and sellers instead of buyers. In line with the Indians is the Detroit Tigers. Since their horrendous 0-8 start, the Tigers have played four games above .500 and now find themselves just five games out. With Justin Verlander] inexplicably struggling, and [[Jeremy Bonderman out for the season, the Tigers rotation could use a big time boost. With Brandon Inge scheduled to come of the DL on July 11th, and with the Dodgers needing a righty bat, I could see a deal where Inge goes to the Dodgers and either Brad Penny or Derek Lowe heading to Motown. Penny himself is currently on the DL himself, he would likely need to prove himself healthy before anyone bites on his availability.

Rumors are just that, rumors. Most of them are made up by the media so they can meet a deadline. Some make no sense, (Scott Kazmir to the Yankees, some do make sense, (Coco Crisp to the Dodgers), and some a combination of both. (While the Reds may trade Adam Dunn, they won't trade him to the Cub s). All which is required when reading through the endless rumors you'll come across over the next month, including these, is a bit of common sense. Does the trade work for both teams? And, if it doesn't, why? Obviously, Shawn Chacon is on the market now, but for non-baseball reasons.

More to come, for sure.