Talk:Buck Shuffles Lineup/@comment-93324-20060413161325

"You keep talking about career numbers, but those don&quot;t help you this season. You have to look at this season... So stop reaming Buck because of Wilkerson&quot;s 2 year-old numbers. You have to go on the present, not the past."

Um, do you have any concept of probability theory at all? Wilkerson&quot;s played in 10 games -- about 45 plate appearances -- so far in 2006. I can tell you definitively that the .200 OBP you allude to is not reflective of Wilkerson&quot;s ability in the least. Wilkerson&quot;s had OBP&quot;s of .380, .374, and .351 over the last three years; what&quot;s more, that .351 mark a year ago is most likely a low outlier -- as in, he&quot;ll probably post a higher OBP in 2006 over the full season, especially in Arlington. The odds of a career .363 OBP guy suddenly becoming a .200 one are astronomical, unless you&quot;re talking about extremely small sample sizes for the career numbers (Wilky&quot;s got 2309 career AB&quot;s, so nope), or a really old player (Wilkerson&quot;s 29, at the tail end of what should be his prime, so nope again). It&quot;s called variance. Randomness. It&quot;s called sample size. I suppose you also think Reed Johnson&quot;s going to hit .533 on the season? Please.