Article:Previewing the Major League Amateur Draft Including a Top Five Mock

The baseball version of the amateur player draft takes place on June fifth and sixth at The Milk House, part of the Wide World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. For the second straight year, the first round will be televised live by ESPN2 and MLB.com, beginning at 2 PM EST.

How many of you knew the draft was coming up in a few days? Raise your hands. It's OK, don't be shy, the only people who will be laughed at are the ones that DID know. The respective NFL and NBA drafts are media made spectacles, with more pomp and circumstance than Hollywood award shows and with results as legitimate as who wins on "Survivor." There are a few reasons for this, and despite all efforts, will remain below Pro Bass Fishing on the popularity charts.

College football and basketball are big money makers for the TV industry. Even back to when I was a kid in the 1960's, hanging in front of the TV on Saturday afternoons watching Ohio State v. Michigan or Lew Alcindor and the UCLA Bruins and having the game be the culmination of what I looked forward to all week. Now with the gazillion cable and satellite channels, the Saturday college football schedule looks like the smorgasboard at the Local Elks Club, an occassional delicacy but mostly crap. Same with basketball, ESPN has a Conference night during the season, Big East on Mondays, Big Ten on Tuesdays, and the weekends seem to be a 24 hour marathon of hoops action, 9am PST tip-off of Florida State v LSU, to the 9pm Loyola Marymount v Hawaii game from the Big Island.

College baseball on the other hand is hardly seen on cable TV, save it for the College World Series every June from Omaha, Nebraska. Unless you live in the same market as a highly ranked team, as I do, the only college baseball news you'll get is likely accidental. And forget about high school baseball. The only way you'll watch a game is if your kid is playing in it. Yet high school football and basketball have their gurus who not only can name the top fifty or so high school players in the country, they actually rate college recruiting classes.

Another reason why the Amateur Draft lacks in popularity comparative to their counter parts is immediate return. When a fan turns on the tube to watch the annual football/basketball drafts in April or June, they know with almost 100% certainty that kid will be in uniform when the season opens come September or October. Not so with baseball. The average ML debut for a first round draft pick is two years and four months, and even at that there's no promise of even reaching the major leagues, as only 64% of all first round picks actually reach The Show. So here's the issue now, your favorite team signs John Doe of So and So State, signs him to a multi-million deal, and the only way you can keep track of him in whatever hick minor league town he's assigned to is thru the Minor League website www.milb.com, or by subsribing to a stat service. Why bother, right? Then by the time he reaches the big leagues, it's like, who the bleep is that guy, 'cause you forgot all about him.

The baseball draft was first held in 1965, when the Kansas City Athletics selected Arizona State University outfielder Rick Monday with the first ever pick. The draft was initiated in part to keep the rich teams from securing all the prime talent. (Now tell me THAT doesn't sound familiar). With all players considered free agents, teams would enter bidding wars, and like playing high stakes poker, teams would fold until the best hand remained, or in this case, the fattest checkbook. In 1964, the California Angels signed University of Washington outfielder Rick Reichardt to the then unheard of sum of $205,000. The total bill for most teams to sign amateur talent in the days before the draft often exceeded their entire major league payroll, another factor in the institution of the draft.

Unlike the 2005 draft, which has had many selections already make a name for themselves at the ML level, (the top five were Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun), this year's draft offers no such prospect. While Upton was deemed a first overall pick right around the time the umbilical cord was cut, this year's crop of players has no clear cut choice, the number of players speculated to go number one has changed a half dozen times since November, and four since the season started.

After the first ten to twelve selections, the talent drop-off is significant, and even in the top ten there is a drop in talent from previous years. There are no bonafide multiple All-Star selections, no multiple Cy Young contenders, no true five-tool stars. The draft is top heavy in first baseman, both now and in the future. A group of Matt LaPorta types, college corner infielders or outfielders who may, by the time they reach the majors, will be limited to the three position because of a lack of range, footwork, or arm. Another strength of the draft is relief pitching. This, to me, is as telling as any stat relating to the draft. Growing up and maturing through high school and into college, the best players on the team are multi-taskers, middle infielders or outfielders with strong arms, who, if the need arises, will also double as the team's best pitcher. By the time you get to college, teams looking at you as a possible draft pick have the dilemma of selecting you as either a pitcher or hitter. When you're only option is as a reliever, then your window of opportunity becomes much smaller. Fail as a hitter, you become a starter. Fail as a starter, you become a reliever. Fail as a reliever, you drive a UPS truck.

A change intiated in 2007 placed a fixed signing date on all players selected, August 15th. Previously, the draft signing date was the day prior to the next years draft. Teams and agents would unecessarily stretch the signing time in order to get a few extra dollars or a few extra perks. MLB determined the same deals could be worked out in a much shorter time frame, and instituted a basketball/football signing slot to ensure negotiations followed protocol. Some teams, most notably the Detroit Tigers, ignored the slot, and drew the rath of MLB and the other teams. With this years talent level down quite a bit from previous years, I expect this years signing process to go without a hitch, guys will realize their fortune at being drafted and will jump at the first reasonable offer. If they gamble and re-enter the draft next year, there's the likelihood the offers won't be repeated.

Another significant change to the draft, intiated for this year, is the implementation of drug testing. A modification to the Joint Drug Agreement as mandated by the settlement between the Players Association and MLB stemming from the Mitchell Report will have a significant impact to this years, and all subsequent, drafts. The top 200 prospects will all be tested prior to the draft, with all players refusing to be tested subsequently will become ineligible for the draft. The top 200 list will be compiled by the ML Scouting Bureau after consultations with each club's scouting departments.

For the first time in history, a team has the number one overall pick in consecutive seasons. The Tampa Bay Rays selected Vanderbilt University lefthander David Price with the first overall pick in 2007. Price injured his elbow towards the end of spring training and only recently made his first appearance of the season. On the board for 2008 is a former Vandy teammate, third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Unfortunately, Alvarez was hit by a pitch in his third at-bat of the season, breaking his right hand in two places. A lefty hitter, Alvarez has returned to action and is hitting a respectable .322 at last report, although his power numbers are down significantly, (6 HR, 22 RBI in 121 AB's). Alvarez is one of those aforementioned position challenged players and likely would change after being drafted. With the Rays solid at third and in left field, (Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford), and first base not often thought of as a draftable position, Alvarez won't go number one. Another factor for Alvarez dropping in the draft is he is represented by Scott Boras, who is expected to demand a four year ML deal for around 8.5 million, a huge deal for a guy who may end up spending more time as a DH.

Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham has the most tools in the draft, they are not considered as sharp as those of the Upton brothers or Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, or Longoria, previous infield selections who have already established themselves as ML regulars. Again, as with Alvarez, the Rays are solid at shortstop, (Jason Bartlett Reid Brignac), I've seen at least eight mock drafts and in none of them has Beckham gone number one overall.

The most common player mocked to go number one overall is University of Missouri righthander Aaron Crow. Crow had a 43 inning scoreless streak earlier this season, a ridiculous stat when you consider the aluminum bat factor, however Crow has been struggling of late with a strained right forearm. University of San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz is also a consideration, but with Scott Kazmir at the ML level, and Price and Jake McGee on the way from the minors, the Rays would do well to focus their attention on an organizational weakness.

Which they appear to be doing, the last two mocks I've seen have the Rays drafting Florida State junior catcher Buster Posey with the number one pick. Posey began the season as a mid-first round selection, yet has shot himself into contention with a .471/15/62 season for the Seminoles. Again, however, with the draft talent being lower this season than in the past, players have moved up and down in status througout the season. Beckham began the season as a possible number one, he's now out of the top five. Posey was 15th, and now can go number one. Alot can change, and probably will, over the next two weeks.

Utilizing each teams Minor League Prospect Reports], I'll mock the top five, with hopefully a justifiable reason or two why.

1) Tampa Bay Rays: As mentioned, the top three or four players on the draft board fit into the Rays organizational strengths, lefthanded starters, leftside infield and outfield. The Rays are void of any catching prospects in the minor leagues, and with Posey and California high school catcher Kyle Shipworth currently in the top ten, it makes sense for the Rays to go that route. Until recently, Aaron Crow had been at the top of the Rays board most of the season, if he proves healthy in the upcoming NCAA Tournament he could still go number one. I do believe at this point the Rays will jump on the hottest player right now and also fix their only true organizational gap.


 * Pick: Buster Posey, catcher, Florida State University [[Image:Bposey.jpg|right|]]

I would not at all be surprised if Posey beats David Price to the big leagues. With no one blocking him, and with a solid half season and maybe a good Arizona Fall League experience, he could start the 2009 season behind the plate in Tampa.

2) Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates problem isn't in drafting great talent, it's paying them. With Jason Bay a free agent at the end of this season, rumors have been strong since the end of last year his days are numbered in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are also desperate to unload the underperforming Adam LaRoche, which would move prospect Steve Pearce back to his natural position at first base. So this to me eliminates the selection of Alvarez here as well. With shortstop a weakness in Pittsburgh even with the injury prone Jack Wilson in the lineup, the Bucs will need a replacement there, and quickly. The draft has a pair of Beckhams, Tim and Gordon, at the top of the shortstop list. Not related, Tim is a Georgia high schooler, with Gordon a junior at the University of Georgia. Tim is the closest thing to a true five tooler in the draft, with his only weakness being a ML requirement for shortstop, range. He, too, stands a good chance of being moved after the draft. With Gordon finally showing power potential, (22 homers in 199 AB's), and being three years older, its my guess the Pirates take the guy closest to ML ready.


 * Pick: Gordon Beckham, shortstop, University of Georgia [[Image:Gbeckham.jpg|left]]

3) Kansas City Royals: The Royals have struggled for offensive production at first base since the prime days of Mike Sweeney. With Ross Gload, Justin Huber and Ryan Shealy all failing to produce when given regular playing time, the Royals could use an immediate offensive boost from the right corner.


 * Pick: Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt University [[Image:Palvarez.jpg|right]]

As with the possible Posey situation in Tampa, with a good season and AFL experience, Alvarez could conceivably head into spring training in 2009 as the odds on favorite to win the job at first.

4)Baltimore Orioles: Following the departure of Eric Bedard and yet another injury to Adam Loewen, the Orioles pitching situation went from questionable to desperate. And let's not forget Troy Patton, the prospect lefty obtained from Houston in the Miguel Tejada deal, who underwent season ending shoulder surgery without throwing a pitch in an Orioles uniform. With both Crow and Matusz considered top five picks, its up to the Orioles to decide which one fits their current organizational needs while at the same time projecting the highest ML upside. Crow is a righthanded power pitcher, he possesses the best fastball in the draft, while Matusz is your typical lefty offspeed specialist. Despite residing in the righty dominant, power laden AL East, lefty pitchers have had success, the Orioles will have no qualms about drafting Matusz if the Rays in fact do select Crow.


 * Pick: Aaron Crow, righthand pitcher, University of Missouri [[Image:Acrow.jpg|left|]] [[Image:Bmatusz.jpg|right]]

5) San Francisco Giants: The Giants organization is so devoit of talent their scouting department has been seen scouring cemetaries for potential prospects. With only starting pitching developing any potential All-Stars in recent years, the Giants will truly take the best position player available. With Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham each pushing 100 years of age, the Giants will look to grab middle infielders throughout the draft, and will start in the first round.


 * Pick: Tim Beckham, shortstop, Griffin High School, Georgia.



Other players expected to go in the top ten are:

Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage High School, Plantation, FL, Justin Smoak, 1B, University of South Carolina, Kyle Shipworth, catcher, Patriot High School, Robidoux, CA, and Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State University

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