Article:2008 Speedway World Championship - Preview and Simulation

The 2008 Speedway Grand Prix season is upcoming shortly, and as a preview, I thought I'd so a simulation.

For many months, friends of mine designed a little game that enabled simulation of speedway races, and then meetings, so that I could use it to simulate meetings. It's purely "for fun."

The current system is a 11 race series, with races all over Europe. There are 15 permanent riders on the series, and 1 wildcard. The top 8 qualify for the following year's series, along with 3 other qualifiers, and 4 nominated riders by the series promoters. In 2008, those riders will be:
 * 1) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 2) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 4) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 5) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 6)  Greg Hancock
 * 7) 🇵🇱 Rune Holta
 * 8)  Scott Nicholls
 * 9)  Chris Harris
 * 10) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson
 * 11) 🇩🇰 Bjarne Pedersen
 * 12) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 13)  Lukas Dryml
 * 14) 🇵🇱 Krzysztof Kasprzak
 * 15) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 16) Home wildcard

Whilst this series is fair, it's a shadow of what the Speedway World Championship used to be. For every year until 1994, there was a series of meetings. It started with national championships, and you worked your way up through ever more global rounds, until you eventually got to the World Final.

The tree was as follows:

Round 1
 * Overseas Final - leading riders from Australia, Great Britain, New Zealand and United States
 * Scandinavian Final - leading riders from Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark
 * Continental Semi Finals - riders from the rest of continental Europe

Round 2
 * Intercontinental Final - top 8 from both the Overseas Final and Scandinavian Final
 * Continental Final - top 8 from the Continental Semi Finals

Round 3
 * World Final - top 11 from the Intercontinental Final, and top 5 from the Continental Final

Drama built up throughout the year, and culminating in a one meeting World Final lead to great drama.

So, I embarked on the challenge of recreating this World Championship, as a means of getting to the all-important World Final. I simmed a few nations meetings, and then went through the rounds to get to the following lineup for the World Final. The 16 qualifiers are in a random order.
 * 1)  Chris Harris
 * 2)  Greg Hancock
 * 3) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 4) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel
 * 5) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 6) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock
 * 7) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 8) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan
 * 9)  Lukas Dryml
 * 10) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 11) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams
 * 12)  Scott Nicholls
 * 13) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 14) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 15) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 16) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson

There were a few shocks in the Continental Final. With only five qualifiers, Saifitudinov surprised Kasprzak in a run-off for 5th place at the end. Hefenbrock came in fourth in front of a home crowd to go through. Dryml won the Continental Final, with the fancied Poles struggling, Gollob came through in third place behind Hampel. Rune Holta, another GP rider, managed to only finish in 9th in the Polish Final, which immediately eliminated him. In the Intercontinental Final, Bjarne Pedersen had a nightmare, scoring only 1 point, and finishing in last place. The non-GP rider that allowed through was Ryan Sullivan, a former GP rider from Australia.

Other shocks included 2007 GP rider Matej Zagar, who didn't even make the Continental Final. There were three Russians in that final, and they colluded to help Saifitudinov advance. A dirty tactic, but a tactic.

So, we reach the World Final. It is held at a fictitous Wembley Stadium, a track that was called "long", to help certain riders. I simulated it, and took notes of what happened. Here is the meeting, with written commentary. Rider names are listed from inside to outside.

Heat 1
Hancock made the start as Harris was left. Lindgren made a good start. After the first lap, Hancock led from Lindgren and Hampel, but then Harris started to fight his way through from the back. He got past Hampel, but was unable to get to Lindgren, who was challenging Hancock for the lead. But Hancock was able to edge the youngster on the line, and the 1997 World Champion was off to a great start. Result: Hancock, Lindgren, Harris, Hampel
 * 1)  Chris Harris
 * 2)  Greg Hancock
 * 3) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 4) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel

Heat 2
On paper, an easy start for Pedersen. It turned out to be that way. But behind him, Hefenbrock and Saifitudinov had a battle royale for second place. Saifitudinov overtook the German on the last corner to take the place. Sullivan was disappointing. Result: Pedersen, Saifitudinov, Hefenbrock, Sullivan
 * 1) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 2) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 3) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock
 * 4) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan

Heat 3
Gollob and Adams are two favourites for the title, but Nicholls is on home dirt. At the tapes, it was Adams that jumped out in front, with Nicholls just behind him. Nicholls overtook Adams at the start of the second lap, but Adams switched underneath Nicholls to retake the place on the back straight. Neither Gollob nor Dryml could catch them, and Gollob ended third behind Adams and Nicholls. Result: Adams, Nicholls, Gollob, Dryml
 * 1) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 2) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams
 * 3)  Lukas Dryml
 * 4)  Scott Nicholls

Heat 4
Crump made the start brilliantly from the inside, and was followed around the outside by Jonsson. Andersen and Iversen were squabbling at the back, but Iversen came out ahead of him in third place. Jonsson soon caught Crump, and tried to overtake him around the outside. At the start of the last lap, Jonsson ran wide and got the drive, and overtook him down the back straight. Jonsson held on to win the best heat of the World Final so far. Result: Jonsson, Crump, Iversen, Andersen
 * 1) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 2) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 3) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson
 * 4) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen

After Heat 4

 * e: retired or mechanical failure
 * m: exclusion for exceeding two minute time allowance
 * t: exclusion for touching the tapes
 * x: other exclusion
 * f: fell
 * ns: non-starter
 * nc: non-classify

Early leaders include the 38 year old American, Greg Hancock, reigning World Champion Nicki Pedersen, the eccentric Andreas Jonsson, and the perennial runner-up, Leigh Adams. Among the favourties, Crump and Gollob will rue bad starts, Gollob's meeting may be already run. Great start for the young Russian.

Heat 5
Harris yet again missed the start, and lay third behind Dryml and Saifitudinov, who was in the lead. Harris soon passed Harris, and was closing in on Saifitudinov at the end of the second lap. Iversen then pulled up with a mechanical failure, but this did not deter Harris, who went through on the inside of the last corner to take the lead. Harris was able to hold on and win the heat. Result: Harris, Saifitudinov, Dryml, Iversen (e)
 * 1) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 2)  Chris Harris
 * 3) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 4)  Lukas Dryml

Heat 6
With 4 out of 5 wins so far from gate 2, Gollob must have fancied his chances, but again it was Hancock who started in the lead. Hans Andersen was second, as he went past Gollob, who ran wide at the first corner. Hefenbrock was dropped at the back, and Andersen was under pressure from Gollob, which he was able to cope with as he held on for second place, with Hancock surprising many as he recorded his second win of the night. Result: Hancock, Andersen, Gollob, Hefenbrock
 * 1) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 2) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 3)  Greg Hancock
 * 4) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock

Heat 7
The top three from 2007 all in the same heat! It was Crump who made the start along with Pedersen, and the two were side by side at turn one. Adams tried to cut back underneath both of them but Pedersen shut the door. At the start of the second lap, Pedersen went through on the inside of Crump. Adams tried to follow him, but could only push Crump out wider. The two were side by side at the start of the third lap, but Pedersen drifted wide, allowing Crump to cut through underneath him and take the lead. Adams fell back into third place, with only Lindgren behind him. Crump held on for the race victory, and Adams almost lost out to Lindgren on the line for third place. Result: Crump, Pedersen, Adams, Lindgren
 * 1) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams
 * 2) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 3) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 4) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren

Heat 8
Jonsson made a great start around the outside of the first corner. Nicholls followed him into second, but from there he couldn't catch him. Hampel edged out Sullivan for third in a fairly processional heat compared to Heat 7. Result: Jonsson, Nicholls, Hampel, Sullivan
 * 1) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel
 * 2) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan
 * 3)  Scott Nicholls
 * 4) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson

After Heat 8

 * e: retired or mechanical failure
 * m: exclusion for exceeding two minute time allowance
 * t: exclusion for touching the tapes
 * x: other exclusion
 * f: fell
 * ns: non-starter
 * nc: non-classify

Hancock still has a surprise lead, with the eccentric Andreas Jonsson level with him. Pedersen and Crump are far from out of it, but the riders on 4 points will probably have to win a runoff for the title. Adams will be fighting hard to make that happen. Gollob is out of it completely.

Heat 9
A "must win" heat for Adams! At the tapes, Adams made the start and took the lead, as did Jonsson, pushing Harris into third place. Jonsson soon caught the Aussie though, and on the second lap he went around the outside to take the lead. Harris then forced his way up the inside of Adams going down the home straight into lap 3, but Adams cut back underneath the Brit to retake second place. Going into the first corner of the final lap, Jonsson ran wide, allowing Adams to close right in. With the World title fading away, Adams had a lunge up the inside into the last corner, and Jonsson was forced wide. But he still had plenty of room for the victory. Result: Jonsson, Adams, Harris, Hefenbrock
 * 1) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock
 * 2) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson
 * 3)  Chris Harris
 * 4) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams

Heat 10
Hancock has been the surprise package so far! Recent good results from the outside encouraged him. At the start however, it was Crump who led the way, with Nicholls behind him in second place. Nicholls tried to pass Crump around the outside, but he ended up turning back and ending up on top of him. Both riders hit the dirt. The race was stopped, and Nicholls was excluded.
 * 1)  Scott Nicholls
 * 2) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 4)  Greg Hancock

Heat 10 Rerun
This time it was Hancock who took the lead from the start, but Crump was right on his tail. Going into the second lap, Crump went wide looking for the dirt, and got the drive out of the corner to take the lead. Hancock couldn't recatch the Australian, who reignited his World Final hopes. Result: Crump, Hancock, Saifitudinov, Nicholls (x)
 * 1)  Scott Nicholls (excluded)
 * 2) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 4)  Greg Hancock

Heat 11
None of these were title challangers. Andersen made the start from the outside, where there was definitely increasing grip. Sullivan tucked in behind him. Lindgren battled hard to keep Dryml behind him, but in the end, the Czech passed him on the third lap. Sullivan caught Andersen, but the Dane had enough to win going over the line. Result: Andersen, Sullivan, Dryml, Lindgren
 * 1) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan
 * 2)  Lukas Dryml
 * 3) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 4) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen

Heat 12
Poland v Denmark in Heat 12. Pedersen made a great start from the outside, and was followed by Iversen. The two Danes then worked as a team to keep the two Poles behind them, with Gollob beating Hampel to the chequered flag. The rest of the riders don't like it, but the Danes did what they needed to do to help Pedersen. Result: Pedersen, Iversen, Gollob, Hampel
 * 1) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 2) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel
 * 3) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 4) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen

After Heat 12

 * e: retired or mechanical failure
 * m: exclusion for exceeding two minute time allowance
 * t: exclusion for touching the tapes
 * x: other exclusion
 * f: fell
 * ns: non-starter
 * nc: non-classify

Three out of five rides for each rider complete, and Jonsson leads the pack for Sweden. Pedersen and Hancock are still in the battle, and Crump is level with them. Then there's a gap to Leigh Adams, but he is surely out of the winning hunt now. Saifitudinov has been great, but Gollob has been poor.

Heat 13
Great Britain v Denmark, the Danes could employ the tactics they used against Gollob and Hampel. At the tapes, Harris missed the start, but Nicholls made it for the Brits. Pedersen in second place. At the end of the opening lap, Harris passed Andersen for third, and then closed in on Pedersen. The two then closed in on Nicholls so they were almost three wide. Pedersen managed to get into the lead though. The British duo tried to close the gap but could not. At the end, Nicholls conceded second place to Harris, to help him with a chance of a medal. Result: Pedersen, Harris, Nicholls, Andersen
 * 1) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 2)  Scott Nicholls
 * 3) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 4)  Chris Harris

Heat 14
Will Sullivan help Adams? Adams made a flyer, and took the lead, but Hancock got ahead of Sullivan. Iversen soon passed him too, leaving Iversen to go in chase of Hancock. Adams was away and gone at the front of the pack, and Hancock and Iversen were neck and neck as the race wore on. Into the final corner, Iversen ran wide to try and get the run to the line, but Hancock moved wide to cover him, and he took second place. This should help Hancock medal, but his chances of being champion are much diminished. Result: Adams, Hancock, Iversen, Sullivan
 * 1)  Greg Hancock
 * 2) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan
 * 4) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams

Heat 15
Jonsson will undoubtedly get the help from Lindgren in Heat 15. However, at the start, the Swedish pair were left, as Gollob took the lead from Saifitudinov. Jonsson was third and went around the outside to try and pass Saifitudinov. But he reaped limited rewards, as he couldn't close on the Russian. At the end of the second lap, Jonsson pulled level around the outside of the first corner, but turned in on Saifitudinov. The two fell to the ground. Jonsson was excluded, and possibly lost any chance of winning the world title. It looked 50-50, but Jonsson got the blame pinned to him.
 * 1) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson
 * 2) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 3) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 4) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov

Heat 15 Rerun
Jonsson was bitterly disappointed, but the race carried on without him. Gollob this time took the lead, and as he disappeared into the distance, the two youngsters, Lindgren and Saifitudinov battled for second place. Lindgren took it with a brave overtake on the third lap. Result: Gollob, Lindgren, Saifitudinov, Jonsson (x)
 * 1) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson (excluded)
 * 2) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 3) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob
 * 4) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov

Heat 16
Crump made a poor start, as Hampel took the lead. Dryml and Hefenbrock collided on the first corner. No blame was attached, and there was a rerun.
 * 1)  Lukas Dryml
 * 2) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock
 * 3) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel
 * 4) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump

Heat 16 Rerun
This time, Crump got away perfectly, and Hefenbrock followed him into second place. Hampel was third, but at the end of the second lap, he passed the German to take second place. Dryml was disappointing at the back.
 * 1)  Lukas Dryml
 * 2) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock
 * 3) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel
 * 4) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump

After Heat 16

 * e: retired or mechanical failure
 * m: exclusion for exceeding two minute time allowance
 * t: exclusion for touching the tapes
 * x: other exclusion
 * f: fell
 * ns: non-starter
 * nc: non-classify

After the fall of Jonsson, Pedersen and Crump are now favourites to take the title. Hancock is in third, and still in with a chance. Mathematically, Adams and Jonsson have a chance, but realistically, they haven't a prayer. Jonsson will need to beat Pedersen and Hancock to have a chance - they meet in Heat 18.

Heat 17
Sullivan may opt to help Crump, here. As the tapes rose, it was Harris in the lead! For the first time in the meeting, Harris leads from the start, but Crump is second, ahead of Gollob, with Sullivan at the back. At the end of the first lap, Crump squeezed through underneath Harris to take the lead. Gollob tried to follow through, but ended up losing control of his bike. He managed to hold on to third place, however. Going into the last lap, Harris went wide of Crump, and down the back straight he got infront of the Aussie. On the last corner, Crump was on the inside, but Harris carried speed around the outside, and he went on to win the heat from Crump. Crump was livid. Result: Harris, Crump, Gollob, Sullivan
 * 1)  Chris Harris
 * 2) 🇦🇺 Ryan Sullivan
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Jason Crump
 * 4) 🇵🇱 Tomasz Gollob

Heat 18
This heat will decide it, if Pedersen wins he will be champion. If Hancock wins, there will be a runoff. Jonsson is out of it. At the start, it was Jonsson that took the lead from the outside, ahead of Pedersen and Hancock. Jonsson ran wide once again though, and let Pedersen through into the lead, and dropped him into Hancock's path. Hancock soon overtook him to move into second place. Hancock had to pass Pedersen to have a chance of the title, but he couldn't do it, and the World Championship would be going to Denmark, in the hands of Nicki Pedersen. ''Result: Pedersen, Hancock, Jonsson, Dryml
 * 1)  Lukas Dryml
 * 2)  Greg Hancock
 * 3) 🇩🇰 Nicki Pedersen
 * 4) 🇸🇪 Andreas Jonsson

Heat 19
None of these can medal, so this is a bit of fun. Nicholls made the start and led, with Iversen and Lindgren, the Wolverhampton Wolves pair battling for second place. Iversen, with more long track expertise, was able to catch and pass the Swede, and take second place. Nicholls won the heat comfortably. Result: Nicholls, Iversen, Lindgren, Hefenbrock
 * 1) 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren
 * 2)  Scott Nicholls
 * 3) 🇩🇰 Niels Kristian Iversen
 * 4) 🇩🇪 Christian Hefenbrock

Heat 20
Adams needs a win to runoff against Hancock for bronze. At the start though, it was Andersen who led, with Adams behind Hampel in third. Saifitudinov struggled at the back, and lost ground on his more illustrious opponents. At the front, Andersen held on in a fairly processional heat. Adams tried in vein to get past Hampel, but he couldn't do it, and he missed out on the chance to claim a medal. Saifitudinov was nonetheless delighted with his World Final. ''Result: Andersen, Hampel, Adams, Saifitudinov
 * 1) 🇷🇺 Emil Saifitudinov
 * 2) 🇩🇰 Hans Andersen
 * 3) 🇦🇺 Leigh Adams
 * 4) 🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Hampel

After Heat 20

 * e: retired or mechanical failure
 * m: exclusion for exceeding two minute time allowance
 * t: exclusion for touching the tapes
 * x: other exclusion
 * f: fell
 * ns: non-starter
 * nc: non-classify

So, Pedersen wins the World Championship of 2008, with Crump in second place, and veteran American, Greg Hancock, in third place.

I hope you enjoyed this, I may do something similar for the Speedway World Cup in the next day or two, which is a team version of this event.