Article:KD's 2008 American League Preview

The Major League record for most teams losing 100 games in a season was set in 2002, when Tampa, Kansas City, Detroit and Milwaukee all accomplished the dubious feat. The record for one league is three, also in 2002. Ironic we are talking about bad teams in the AL, but that's the case. The consensus best two teams in the National League are the Phillies and Mets, both would not be in the top half dozen in the AL. But the AL also possesses three of the worst teams in baseball, with Texas, Oakland, Chicago, Minnesota and Baltimore all capable of losing 100 games, while only two, Florida and San Francisco, can make that claim in the NL. Feast or famine will be the rule of thumb in the AL in 2008.

American League West
1) Seattle Mariners

I picked the Mariners to win the West last season, because I thought they were the best team, and even though they couldn't hold on, I believe they were. A .205/21/63 season from your clean-up hitter just won't get it done. I'm picking them this year for the same reason, they're a better team. And I thought so before picking up Eric Bedard. The Angels have been hit hard with injuries on their staff which certainly will go a long way in deciding the race, but the Mariners should hold on throughout the season. Bedard certainly was a great pick-up, and despite starting on opening day would (should) be considered the M's #2 starter behind man-child Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is in his fourth ML season and won't turn 22 until just after the season has started. A true ace, Hernandez showed last season he's not a kid anymore, losing 25 pounds after the 2006 season and showing a new-found maturity. Veterans Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista, a surprising 16 game winner in 2007, round out the rotation. The bullpen is anchored by closer J.J. Putz and set up men Ryan Rowland-Smith, a hard throwing lefty, and off-speed specialist Mark Lowe. The outfield consists of three veterans, Ichiro Suzuki, Brad Wilkerson and Raul Ibanez, with super-sub Mike Morse able to fill in if needed. Joining Sexson in the infield is second baseman Jose Lopez, shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and third baseman Adrian Beltre, who is coming off his best season defensively. Jamie Burke backs up starter Kenji Johjima behind the plate, with Jose Vidro the main DH, and who will likely see time at first base as well. The M's have some help down the road in Tacoma, ready to step in at a moments notice; outfielders Wladimir Balentien and Jeremy Reed, catcher Jeff Clement and pitcher Brandon Morrow, all should spend time in Seattle this season, and contribute.

2) Los Angeles Angels

The injuries to starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar only justified picking the Angels in the second spot, I didn't have a change of heart after hearing the situation with them. To me, the Angels are a poor man's version of the Yankees, they are an old team, an injury or two is going to knock them silly because there are few players in their system ML ready. The corner infield and outfield positions are traditionally your power positions, the Angels trot out Chone Figgins and Casey Kotchman at the infield corners. These guys have combined for 45 career homers in over 3000 AB's. Understandable that Figgins isn't a true third baseman or a power hitter, but he's still playing there. Kotchman has had some injury concerns in the past, but 20 homers in close to 800 career AB's is still not first baseman production. The signing of Torii Hunter confirms what most people knew, the Gary Matthews Jr. signing was a bad one. And the problem with the Angels outfield is none of those guys, Vladimir Guerrero, Garrett Anderson, Matthews and Hunter can play anywhere else. Juan Rivera has played some at first base and would be a righthanded option if need be, but the Angels have screwed themselves, they have an overpaid, one dimensional team. They'd love to make a trade, but can't, who wants Anderson or Rivera? And who wants Matthews' contract? Another genius move was trading one of the better defensive shortstops in the game, Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for their THIRD starter, Jon Garland. With Lackey and Escobar hurt, the Angels will be counting on Garland to anchor their staff. Garland joins Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders in the rotation, Darren Oliver and someone named Dustin Moseley will hold down the fort at least until Lackey returns, if he returns. The saving grace for the Angels might be the best closer in the game, [[Francisco Rodriguez, but, I'm afraid, it won't be enough.

3) Texas Rangers

Aside from their middle infield combo of Michael Young and Ian Kinsler, which is among the best in baseball, the Rangers roster contains a bunch of has-beens and never-was. Gerald Laird and Adam Melhuse behind the plate, the underachieving and injury prone Hank Blalock is at third, although by default. Blalock was actually beaten out for the job in spring training by Travis Metcalf, but he was injured towards the end and likely won't return until mid-May. Cleveland cast-off Ben Broussard is at first, with the enigmatic Milton Bradley in left field, with a Marlon Byrd Frank Catalanottoplatoon in right. Bradley may spend some time at DH, which would move Catalanotto to left. The guy to watch out for is centerfielder Josh Hamilton, obtained from Cincinnati in the off-season. Hamilton went through a tough season last year, but not for the reasons you'd expect. Everywhere were the questions about the drugs, staying clean type inquiries. This year, the questions should all be baseball related. Hamilton has proven to be a legitimate talent and should blossom in the hitter friendly American League, and especially in a hitter friendly home park.

4) Oakland Athletics

GM Billy Beane after the A's traded starter Dan Haren to Arizona, "sometimes you have to sacrifice a season or two in order to be successful for five years afterwards." Well, he certainly right about the sacrifice, as the A's are certain to approach 100 losses this season. As bad as the Rangers roster appears on paper, the A's is worse. Emil Brown. Jack Cust. Chris Denorfia. Dan Johnson. Donnie Murphy. Santiago Casilla. Somewhere in Arizona, Dan Haren is smiling. Alot. OK, I can't think of anything nice to say, so I'll move on now.

Central Division
1) Detroit Tigers

I'm picking the Tigers here but not for the reasons you might think. Yes, the Miguel Cabrera trade will help, but the main reason I have them here is I don't believe in Cleveland, especially their pitching. Top to bottom, the Tigers are a deep team. Outfielder Jacque Jones and infielder Brandon Inge are reserves in Detroit, but could start just about anywhere else. Their fifth starter, Dontrelle Willis, was the ace in Florida. The Tigers have had some injury problems, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, plus they've already lost centerfielder Curtis Granderson not even a week into the season. Justin Verlander is an ace, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson are serviceable, if not underachieving, and the vet Kenny Rogers just keeps getting it done. With bombers Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen and defending batting champ Magglio Ordonez combining with Cabrera, and the steady Ivan Rodriguez and Placido Polanco being joined by the newly acquired Edgar Renteria, the Tigers will score runs. Lots of them.

2) Cleveland Indians

Like the Tigers, the Indians will score a bucketload of runs. Like the Tigers, they may have some trouble keeping their opponents from scoring runs. Unlike the Tigers, however, the Tribe is deficient in more areas in that regard than Detroit. First, and let the minuses begin, I am not a believer in C.C. Sabathia. First, he's big, and keeps getting bigger. Eventually, his lack of physical conditioning will catch up to him, and, because of his size, once he's hurt once he's done. I understand it may never happen, but I'll take my chances. And quite frankly, 238 hits allowed in 241 innings isn't that impressive, especially for a Cy Young Award winner. The Indians have two legitimate All-Stars in Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore, everyone else fills a role. Without a bounceback season from Travis Hafner, (.308/42/117 in 2006, .266/24/100 in '07), there's no one else on the roster able to make up the difference. Fausto Carmona's sinker rivals that of the Diamondbacks Brandon Webb as the best in the game, but one season does not a pitcher make. Look at his teammate Cliff Lee, an All Star season follwed by a pretty good one then nothing for three years. Sorry, but bottom of the ninth, down one, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez are a whole lot more frightening than Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez and Ryan Garko.

3) Kansas City Royals

Like I had mentioned in my NL report with the Pirates, the Royals record and subsequent finish may not be truly indicitive of their talent. While a candidate for most improved team this season, the inadequacy of the White Sox and Twins may contribute more to their final standing. I saw the Royals several times in spring training and they really are a better team. Brian Bannister was breaking bats all over the place and looked to have picked up some speed on his fastball. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahan and Billy Butler were raking the ball all over the place, including over the fences. And, by far, the best pitcher I saw all spring was Zach Greinke. He was throwing 98 mph, with a 12-6 breaker, and an eviable slider and change. With the newly acquired Jose Guillen in right and the improving David DeJesus in center, the Royals outfield is one of the best in baseball. The Royals infield is young and will make their fair share of mistakes, but they should improve as the season goes on. The Royals won 69 games last season despite having two players reach double digits in homers, three reach 60 RBI, and only one score 80 or more runs. And lets not forget only one pitcher reaching double figures in wins. This year will be different, and if the Royals get help from their two hapless division partners, so be it. They'll win more than 69 games, alot more, and who cares how they do it. But this team is for real, Greinke, Gordon, Teahan are future All-Stars, and multiple ones at that. And let's not forget Luke Hochevar is a handful of Triple A starts away from joining the rotation.

4) Chicago White Sox

There are alot of recognizable names on the Sox roster, but not all because of their playing ability. Some because of their failure rate. Former first rounder Brian Anderson, former DbackCarlos Quentin. One time wonders Joe Crede and Juan Uribe. Their pitching staff has no hit hurler Mark Buehrle and newly crowned ace Javier Vazquez, but also has Boone Logan? Not enough to instill fear in a league where six teams could reach 100 wins. But at least they won't finish last.

5) Minnesota Twins

In the off-season, the Twins lost two time AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana via trade, and replaced him with Livan Hernandez. They lost All-Star outfielder Torii Hunter also to free agency and replaced him with Delmon Young. Third baseman Nick Punto had the fewest RBI last season (25) of anyone with more than 400 plate appearances. Castoffs Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett will not only start but will be expected to contribute more than what their ability may allow. Bright spots should be outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitcher Nick Blackburn. Holdover stars Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will need to pick up the slack due to the loss of Hunter.

Eastern Division
1) Boston Red Sox

I had the Sox winning it all last year not because I thought they were the best team, but because they were the most balanced. This year, they might even be better. Not surprisingly, the J.D. Drew signing turned out to be a waste, and Manny Ramirez didn't have his best season. They were picked up by third baseman Mike Lowell, statistically the best third baseman of all-time who decided to have his career offensive year. Perhaps the two biggest surprises was catcher Jason Varitek, who played 131 games despite having off-season knee surgery, and overachieving second baseman Dustin Pedroia who somehow managed to hit .317 on his way to winning Rookie of the Year. The Sox got a 20 win season from Josh Beckett, their usual consistency from Tim Wakefield and solid if unspectacular seasons from Diasuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling. Heading into this season, all the Red Sox needed was to determine if rookie Jacoby Ellsbury is good enough to unseat Coco Crisp and play everyday, and if Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester can handle full time rotation duty while Schilling recovers from a torn shoulder tendon. The Sox have enough top to bottom to handle playing in the tough AL East on a daily basis, and should play well enough, even with injuries, to hang on.

2) Toronto Blue Jays

Speaking of injuries, the Blue Jays lead the major leagues in games lost to injury last season, yet still managed to win 83 games in the toughest division in baseball. With Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay healthy, with the hope of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett of staying healthy, and the return of closer B.J. Ryan, who actually missed the entire season, the Jays should remain in contention all season. With Alexis Rios playing himself into star status, and second baseman Aaron Hill becoming the player the Jays thought he could be, this seasons race to the postseason could be one for the books.

3) New York Yankees

The more I think about it, the more I like Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. The more I think about it, the more I dislike the naming of Joe Girardi manager. Maybe the news reports are true, Joe Torre got tired of dealing with the Steinbrenners, maybe Torre got bored managing a team of stars, where all he did every day strategy wise was decide who batted where in the order. But Girardi isn't the right guy for this team. He proved himself more than capable with a young team in Florida, but the Yankees, despite the presence of Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes and Chamberlain, are anything but young. A hot shot red-ass manager will turn this team into a bunch of overpaid, whining, leave me alone prima donnas who not only revolt on the field but off as well. And, why the hell haven't they traded Melky Cabrera yet? Or even went out and got themselves a CF. The good thing about this season will be the end, when the Yanks can wave bye-bye to Jason Giambi and his 16 million salary, to Andy Pettitte and his 16 mil, to Mike Mussina and his 10, and Bobby Abreu and his 14. Then, they can go sign Mark Teixeira to an 8 year, 175 million deal and maybe grab a pitcher, and open up the new Yankee Stadium with a return to the World Series. But it won't happen this year.

4) Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have had the best farm system in the game the past two seasons, the problem is, being a great minor league player doesn't always translate into being a great major league player, and certainly not in a year's time. The breakout season of Carlos Pena was awesome to see, not only has he gotten the short end of the stick a few times in his career, he is a genuinely nice guy. B.J. Upton's bust out season, and solid seasons for the since departed Brendan Harris and Delmon Young were also fun to watch, but the bottom line is the Rays still won just 66 games. It's hard to be taken seriously when you finish last or close to it in most all pitching categories, despite the presence of Scott Kazmir. The Rays have a couple more young guys on the way, specifically third baseman Evan Longoria, but holes remain. The Rays are really close to making the top three teams in this division really nervous about their presence, but it isn't this year.

5) Baltimore Orioles

A once proud franchise relegated to a laughingstock. Trading their ace pitcher Eric Bedard for next to nothing. (Sorry Adam Jones, if you were that good you'd be playing CF in Seattle). Trading their offensive leader, Miguel Tejada, to Houston, for less. Troy Patton, the lefty starter included in the deal, will miss the entire season after having surgery for a torn rotator cuff. Nick Markakis likely has a calendar on his wall, and X's out everyday til he's eligible for free agency, like a prisoner marking time til he is released into the world. I know the Rays are happy their in the same divison as the O's, at least they won't finish last.

Postseason
The Red Sox will come in with the best record in the American League, followed closely by Detroit. I would really like to pick Toronto as the wild card but I just don't see them staying healthy all season, especially on the mound. If Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett each get 33-35 starts and approach 20 wins, if a replacement is found for B.J. Ryan, and Vernon Wells can return to his former self, then they will win it, but I have to give it to the Indians. In the postseason, the Red Sox will take out Cleveland, while Detroit will knock out the Seattle Mariners. The ALCS will be a tougher fight than the Red Sox have had in their most recent postseason history, but, as teams found out last postseason, beating Josh Beckett in October is virtually impossible.

In the World Series, the Sox will take on the Cincinnati Reds, and, as with some recent Series will show, there is a huge difference between the best AL team and the best of the NL. Sox wrap it up in five.